Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

.UPDATE...
WILL TAKE THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING OUT OF THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST HALF. REST OF PACKAGE
OKAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006/

UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH UPGRADED TO TORNADO AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE OUT ASAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PUBLISH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH
JACK...PARKER...HOOD...SOMERVELL...BOSQUE...CORYELL TO LAMPASAS.
STRONG SUPERCELLS OUT IN THE ROLLING PLAINS MOVING TOWARDS
EASTLAND AS THIS IS WRITTEN.    84

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006/

AVIATION UPDATE...TSTMS BUILDING THIS EVENING TO THE WEST AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  NO SIG CHANGES TO THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOWER CIGS TOWARD MORNING.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WITH WIND FIELDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY THINK
THAT TSTMS WILL CONGLOMERATE SOMETIME AFTER DARK TO THE WEST AND
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT TIMING SHOWS TEMPO 06-10Z AT DFW FOR
TSTM ARRIVAL.  THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER.  PRECIP
SHOULD END SOMETIME DURING THE MID MORNING TOMORROW...AND WILL SHOW
IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY BY MID MORNING.  /DUNN/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER OVERNIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM EVENT ON THE HORIZON. RIGHT NOW...THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING AROUND NORTH TEXAS THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS LINE BUT NO SHOWERS OR STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FIRST FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT
THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND HAVE BEEN OF NO
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN WEST
TEXAS AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MCS HAS BEEN THE TRICKY PART
BUT HAVE OPTED TO TAKE THE SOUTHERN ROUTE AND MOVE THE MAIN MCS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS ACROSS
ALL THE CWA TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
ALL THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO CAUSE NO MORE THAN JUST LOCALIZED FLOODING.
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE STORMS WILL NOT REALLY GET GOING IN
NORTH TEXAS UNTIL AFTER 10 PM AND THEN SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WE WILL BEGIN TO
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
THEN BEGIN TO INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING MONDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THIS
FRONT AND HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS ON THIS SITUATION. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...HAVE GENERALLY GONE A DEGREE OR SO
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE
WARM LATELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
AND WILL SEE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT.

82/JLD

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ100-TXZ101-
TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ141-TXZ142-
TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ156-TXZ157.

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-
TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-
TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ174.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ100-TXZ101.

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-
TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-
TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ174.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ100-TXZ101.

&&

/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO
DENTON TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.  A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE GOLDTHWAITE...LAMPASAS...AND TEMPLE AREAS LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. A SECOND
COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY...
RESULTING IN FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
AFTER 6 PM....AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AFTER 11 PM.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     HAIL             EVANT                   31.48N  98.15W
05/05/2006  E1.75 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL HAIL AT EVANT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ115-116-060500-

PALO PINTO-STEPHENS-
1123 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF RANGER...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRAD...GORDON...METCALF GAP
AND PALO PINTO.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM THROUGH 1230 AM.

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ158>160-060515-

BELL-FALLS-MCLENNAN-
1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GATESVILLE...MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

ON ITS CURRENT PATH...THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF MCLENNAN AND BELL COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRODUCING UP TO
BASEBALL-SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. SEVERE
WEATHER WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR BELL AND MCLENNAN COUNTIES AS THIS
DANGEROUS STORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL CROSS INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN WACO AND TEMPLEBY 1230
AM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM.

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ115-116-129-130-060615-

EASTLAND-ERATH-PALO PINTO-STEPHENS-
1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. BEHIND THIS LINE IS AN
AREA OF WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...PRODUCED
BY A SMALL SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE AT THE NORTH
END OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE. THESE WINDS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES AND MAY OCCUR AT ANY LOCATION IN THE
AREA FOR A HALF HOUR OR MORE BEFORE WEAKENING.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLUFF DALE...BRAD...
BRECKENRIDGE...CARBON...CISCO...CRYSTAL FALLS...EASTLAND...GORDON...
GORMAN...GUNSIGHT...HARPERSVILLE...HUBBARD CREEK LAKE...HUCKABAY...
IVAN...LINGLEVILLE...METCALF GAP...MORGAN MILL...PALO PINTO...RANGER
AND POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TSTM WND GST     COMANCHE                31.90N  98.60W
05/06/2006  E60 MPH          COMANCHE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            60 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED IN COMANCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1211 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     HAIL             GATESVILLE              31.44N  97.73W
05/06/2006  E1.75 INCH       CORYELL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO