Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
820 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 JUST ISSUED UNTIL 05Z FOR NORTH
GEORGIA FROM ROME TO HOMER AND NORTHWARD. UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE
TSRA POPS NW/NC AREAS...ADD LARGE HAIL AS A THREAT...AND ADD WATCH.
ELSEWHERE...JUST LEFT MOSTLY 20 PERCENT POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS AS
MCS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN ACROSS THIS AREA. SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LESS AT THAT TIME. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO TEMPERATURE OR
LATER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
TSRA ACTIVITY NW GA IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND VERY LARGE AND PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES/NE U.S. UPPER LOW.
ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY COLD AIR ALOFT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
JET WITH NOSE RIGHT INTO NW GA THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EXPECTED TO BE ALMOST ENTIRELY LARGE HAIL IN THE PENNY TO GOLF
BALL-SIZE RANGE. STEEP LAPSE RATES A RESULT OF -18C AT
500MB...ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS ARE FAIRLY COOL FOR MAY...MOSTLY IN THE
60S. PW IS LOW...MOSTLY 0.50 OR LESS AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE LOW.
WOULD EXPECT SEVERITY OF ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET AS LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL REDUCE LAPSE RATES AND UPPER JET
LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND TAKES A MORE EASTWARD ORIENTATION.
GFS...WHICH VERIFIED WELL ON THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITIES...ADVERTISES
A SECONDARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL...WHICH TRACKS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN 08Z-16Z.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS EVEN BEST CAPES 200 OR LESS AND SFC LIS -1 TO
-2 AFT 06Z. SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS W/N GA BY AFTERNOON WITH
MCS OR WHAT IS LEFT OF SUCH SYSTEM TRANSLATING TO THE SE INTO
CHS/CAE/JAX AREA BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
LARGE UPPER LOW NE U.S. WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 7 AS IT IS CONTINUALLY REINFORCED AND BLOCKED. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OUT AROUND +4C
MON TO ABOUT +10C BY FRIDAY. SFC AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY FOR MAY
AS NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR TSRA
UNTIL PERHAPS LATE IN THE WEEK. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC TEMPS WILL HOLD IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH MON-TUE...WARMING INTO THE 70S BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALL-IN-ALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH THIS FIRST WAVE.
THE MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COLD
FRONT HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE METRO
AREA AROUND 5 Z AND CONTINUE ON ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR SUNRISE.
THERE IS HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE THUNDER SO MAY HOLD OFF AND CONTINUE VCTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS
LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8-12,000 FT BEFORE
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING LOWER CISGS AROUND 3,000
FT. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MCN AND CSG IN
APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF RMG-GVL THROUGH
01Z SUN.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1045 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1045 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL HELP TO INITIATE
CONVECTION.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT TONIGHT WILL INITIATE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO OVERCOME WEAK SURFACE
BASED CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

EA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
956 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             YOUNG HARRIS            34.93N 83.85W
05/13/2006  E0.88 INCH       TOWNS              GA   PUBLIC

&&

EAVILA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
959 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             YOUNG HARRIS            34.93N 83.85W
05/13/2006  E0.75 INCH       TOWNS              GA   PUBLIC

            COVERING THE GROUND

&&

EAVILA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

GAZ001-140300-
1032 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN DADE COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM EDT...

AT 1027 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.  1/4 TO 1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS UP TO 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES...OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1101 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             COLUMBUS                32.47N 84.97W
05/13/2006  E0.75 INCH       MUSCOGEE           GA   PUBLIC

1040 PM     HAIL             MACON                   32.84N 83.66W
05/13/2006  E0.75 INCH       BIBB               GA   PUBLIC

&&

EAVILA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1104 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

GAZ083-084-140330-
1104 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN TWIGGS AND
WILKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1103 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MYRICKS MILL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  THIS
STORM HAS WEAKENED...BUT IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE-HALF INCH
HAIL AS IT MOVES THROUGH WILKINSON AND TWIGGS COUNTIES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1106 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

GAZ001>003-140330-
1106 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN DADE...WALKER AND
CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WILDWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS DADE...WALKER...AND CATOOSA
...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN AND FORT OGLETHORPE.
DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.