Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
531 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. ISOLATED
SVR POSSIBLE IN NRN 1/4 OF GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
SCT SHRA HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. ELSEWHERE...TOO COOL AND
LESSENED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MUCH TSRA.

PATTERN STILL FCST TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NRN IL
MOVING SOUTH. S/W AND FRONT TO ROTATE AROUND SOUTH END INTO GA
SUNDAY...SO CHC TO NEAR LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION SO CONF FAIRLY HIGH. IF FORECAST
COVERAGE WAS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER CATEGORICAL POPS WOULD BE IN
ORDER.

IF MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED FURTHER OUT...DRY SLOT MAY PREVENT
MUCH SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE PAST BY
THEN. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
BUT NOT MUCH. UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS LIFTING OUT MON NIGHT BUT
L/W TROUGH STILL HANGS TO THE WEST OF GA. WILL KEEP POPS GOING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
L/W POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THEN ERN U.S. WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET RID OF THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH SMALL CHCS FOR PRECIP. SVR TSRA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY. FCST SEEMS TO HAVE THIS IN HAND.

SNELSON

&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH THIS FIRST WAVE.
THE MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COLD
FRONT HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE METRO
AREA AROUND 5 Z AND CONTINUE ON ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR SUNRISE.
THERE IS HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE THUNDER SO MAY HOLD OFF AND CONTINUE VCTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS
LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8-12,000 FT BEFORE
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING LOWER CISGS AROUND 3,000
FT. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MCN AND CSG IN
APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         56  72  50  68 /  30  50  10  10
ATHENS          54  73  49  72 /  30  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     54  70  49  68 /  30  50  20  20
ROME            52  74  45  71 /  30  40  10  20
COLUMBUS        60  75  55  73 /  30  60  10  10
MACON           57  75  53  74 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
428 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL HELP TO INITIATE
CONVECTION.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF A
LINE STRETCHING FROM LA GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO BLUE RIDGE AFTER 10 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT LATER TONIGHT MAY HELP TO INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL HELP TO OVERCOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
LESS THAN 1000. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA.

EA