Tornado Warning 68, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 272256
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
554 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC107-272345-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0068.000000T0000Z-060827T2345Z/
LAFAYETTE MO-
554 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE
COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALONG HIGHWAY 24...ON THE JACKSON AND 
LAFAYETTE COUNTY LINE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL 
LIKELY OBSCURE ANY TORNADO WITH THIS STORM. PERSONS ALONG HIGHWAYS 
24 AND 131 IN WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY NEED TO TAKE COVER NOW IF 
YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A 
SAFE PLACE.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WELLINGTON BY 605 PM CDT.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND DAMAGING 
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 3914 9411 3905 9412 3904 9389 3920 9388

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 272308
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC107-272345-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0068.000000T0000Z-060827T2345Z/
LAFAYETTE MO-
606 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE
COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 600 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES 
DOWN JUST SOUTH OF WELLINGTON. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER 
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING A RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO NEAR WELLINGTON...OR 8 MILES NORTH 
OF ODESSA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE
COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 24 AND 131.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL 
LIKELY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR 
HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE 
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3914 9411 3905 9412 3904 9389 3920 9388

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 272313
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC107-272345-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0068.000000T0000Z-060827T2345Z/
LAFAYETTE MO-
612 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 609 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF BATES CITY. THIS TORNADO...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL 
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN 
LAFAYETTE COUNTY...BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE 
TOWN OF MAYVIEW IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3916 9401 3905 9404 3904 9389 3920 9388

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 272333
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC107-272342-
/O.CAN.KEAX.TO.W.0068.000000T0000Z-060827T2345Z/
LAFAYETTE MO-
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 629 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED EAST...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY.

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
LAFAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3916 9401 3905 9404 3904 9389 3920 9388

$$

BOOKBINDER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
247 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR NRN MO...THEN DRAPED SWD ALONG THE KANSAS PORTION OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST HAS GIVEN WAY TO A FEW BREAKS IN
THE QUASI-WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80
DEGREES. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...GIVEN AVAILABLE 12Z KTOP SOUNDING...THIS
IS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS ALREADY
BLOSSOMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEAK...OWING TO A VERY NEUTRAL/SATURATED SOUNDING...MORE TYPICAL OF
THE DEEP TROPICS. HOWEVER...VERY NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 RANGE SUPPORT AN
ONGOING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVERTOPPED BY A PERSISTENT MOIST SWRLY MID-HIGH LEVEL PLUME.

HAVE WORKED UP A DETAILED PNS/RAINFALL MAP OF THE LAST 3 DAYS WHICH
I HOPE TO HAVE POSTED TO THE WEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANYWHERE FROM
2.50 TO LOCALLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO
TRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE. AGAIN...EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE VIVID LIGHTNING SHOWS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ACCOMPANY MANY CELLS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS CONTINUES
EAST...SCOURING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE RESULT MAY BE
SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG OVER WRN MO/ERN KS
LATER TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH SHORT TERM CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT.

RAIN CHANCES DONT END THERE HOWEVER AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAINTAINED SWRLY UPPER FLOW...COMBINED
WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES (MAINLY DIURNAL) THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL (ALBEIT MUGGY) FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S LOOKING QUITE
PROMISING.

BOOKBINDER

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GENERATION OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
BY MID WEEK. AN END TO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MILD...RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMALS...FROM MID TO LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK...AS AN EASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
DELAY ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
COMES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH HOW SOON TO GENERATE A CLOSED LOW...AND IN
TURN HOW FAST TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM EAST. THE 06Z GFS CUTOFF THE
LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND WYOMING BY FRIDAY...KEEPING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER MANITOBA
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...AND BRINGS THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. KEPT WHAT WERE ALREADY SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY WHICH WERE CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS TIMING.

STOFLET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006/
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SPREADING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. STORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITH THE
HELP OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE 800MB  AND 700MB LEVEL WITHIN
THE MOISTURE PLUME.

ALREADY THIS MORNING SOME FLOODING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE KANSAS CITY
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE NEED FOR SOME KIND OF
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.

BOTH MODELS WANT TO PAINT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL DAY LONG...AND THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE NAM-WRF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT SPINS UP A 850MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
SEEMS TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF RAIN BY KEEPING THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN EDGE.
NAM-WRF IS MORE AGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CAN BE TRACKED BACK TO THE EXTENT TO
WHICH EACH MODEL DIGS THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM-WRF KEEPS MORE ENERGY TIDED UP IN THE LOW WHILE
THE GFS OPENS THE WAVE UP AND SHEARS IT ENERGY OUT INTO THE
WESTERLIES. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...THIS DOES NOT AFFECT THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGHS MOVEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE GFS FINALLY MOVES THE AXIS TO OUR EAST WHILE THE THE NAM-WRF
STILL HAS IT TO OUR WEST.

PREFERENCE IN MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR THE NAM-WRF. THOUGHTS
ARE THAT THE GFS IS LIMITING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TOO
MUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF THE 850MB LOW. EVEN WITH THE NAM-WRF AS
THE PREFERRED MODEL QUESTIONS EXIST AS TO WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE. WILL THE RAINS SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...OR
JUMP NORTH QUICKLY? FOR THIS REASON I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT PIN
DOWN MORE ACCURATELY WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WONT BE...AND THEREFORE
DECIDE WHERE TO PLACE ANY NEEDED FLOOD WATCH.

OTHERWISE...CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SAINT JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE LINE.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH HIGHLAND AND TROY KANSAS.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI
 THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
 SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...HAS
 FALLEN OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
 AND THE KANSAS CITY METRO. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
 RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO  FLASH
 FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG URBAN AREAS AND HIGHLY RESPONSIVE
 RIVERS AND CREEKS. PERSONS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED
 TO TAKE ACTION IF WATERS RISE RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
 SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORTH KANSAS CITY       39.14N 94.56W
08/27/2006                   CLAY               MO   UTILITY COMPANY

            SEVERAL CARS STALLED ON ROADWAYS/INTERSECTIONS OF NORTH
            KANSAS CITY...1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 40 MINUTES.

&&

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
524 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TORNADO          3 ESE INDEPENDENCE      39.07N 94.30W
08/27/2006                   JACKSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE SPOUSE JUST NORTH OF
            INDEPENDENCE CENTER

&&

HUDSON