Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 272222
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
522 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSC091-103-209-MOC037-047-095-165-280330-
LEAVENWORTH KS-WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-PLATTE MO-CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-
CASS MO-
522 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON...JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH...SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHERN CLAY AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN 
JOHNSON...NORTHERN JACKSON...SOUTHERN WYANDOTTE...SOUTHEAST 
LEAVENWORTH...AND SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA SINCE 2 
PM.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...BASEHOR...BELTON...BLUE SPRINGS...BONNER SPRINGS...
CLAYCOMO...DE SOTO...EDGERTON...EDWARDSVILLE...FAIRWAY...GARDNER...
GLADSTONE...GRANDVIEW...GREENWOOD...INDEPENDENCE AND KANSAS CITY.

WATER ON THE ROADS HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR 75TH AND STATE LINE ROAD 
IN PRAIRIE VILLAGE...WORNALL ROAD NEAR THE PLAZA...AND INTERSTATE 
435 IN WYANDOTTE COUNTY. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3936 9425 3889 9421 3874 9455 3874 9503
      3924 9503

$$

PREDMORE

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 280032
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
728 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC037-280026-
CASS MO-
728 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CASS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3936 9425 3904 9421 3893 9454 3891 9503
      3924 9503

$$

KSC091-103-209-MOC047-095-165-280330-
LEAVENWORTH KS-WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-PLATTE MO-CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-
728 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN JACKSON...
NORTHERN JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH...SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHERN CLAY AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 728 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE 
GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER STORMS 
WAS STILL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WHICH HAS CLOSED NUMEROUS ROADS 
FROM SOUTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTY THROUGH WYANDOTTE...SOUTHERN 
PLATTE...SOUTHERN CLAY AND FAR NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES. DOPPLER 
RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN FELL 
FROM THESE LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 31ST AND 
SOUTHWEST BOULEVARD NEAR THE STATE LINE IN EASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY. 
SIXTH STREET IN PARKVILLE WAS CLOSED NEAR CROOKED ROAD.

THERE IS A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE 
KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO THE NEAR 
SATURATED GROUND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF AND 
LIKELY RESULT IN MORE FLASH FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3936 9425 3904 9421 3893 9454 3891 9503
      3924 9503

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
247 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR NRN MO...THEN DRAPED SWD ALONG THE KANSAS PORTION OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST HAS GIVEN WAY TO A FEW BREAKS IN
THE QUASI-WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80
DEGREES. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...GIVEN AVAILABLE 12Z KTOP SOUNDING...THIS
IS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS ALREADY
BLOSSOMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEAK...OWING TO A VERY NEUTRAL/SATURATED SOUNDING...MORE TYPICAL OF
THE DEEP TROPICS. HOWEVER...VERY NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 RANGE SUPPORT AN
ONGOING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVERTOPPED BY A PERSISTENT MOIST SWRLY MID-HIGH LEVEL PLUME.

HAVE WORKED UP A DETAILED PNS/RAINFALL MAP OF THE LAST 3 DAYS WHICH
I HOPE TO HAVE POSTED TO THE WEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANYWHERE FROM
2.50 TO LOCALLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO
TRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE. AGAIN...EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE VIVID LIGHTNING SHOWS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ACCOMPANY MANY CELLS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS CONTINUES
EAST...SCOURING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE RESULT MAY BE
SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG OVER WRN MO/ERN KS
LATER TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH SHORT TERM CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT.

RAIN CHANCES DONT END THERE HOWEVER AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAINTAINED SWRLY UPPER FLOW...COMBINED
WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES (MAINLY DIURNAL) THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL (ALBEIT MUGGY) FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S LOOKING QUITE
PROMISING.

BOOKBINDER

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GENERATION OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
BY MID WEEK. AN END TO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MILD...RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMALS...FROM MID TO LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK...AS AN EASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
DELAY ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
COMES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH HOW SOON TO GENERATE A CLOSED LOW...AND IN
TURN HOW FAST TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM EAST. THE 06Z GFS CUTOFF THE
LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND WYOMING BY FRIDAY...KEEPING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER MANITOBA
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...AND BRINGS THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. KEPT WHAT WERE ALREADY SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY WHICH WERE CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS TIMING.

STOFLET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006/
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SPREADING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. STORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITH THE
HELP OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE 800MB  AND 700MB LEVEL WITHIN
THE MOISTURE PLUME.

ALREADY THIS MORNING SOME FLOODING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE KANSAS CITY
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE NEED FOR SOME KIND OF
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.

BOTH MODELS WANT TO PAINT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL DAY LONG...AND THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE NAM-WRF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT SPINS UP A 850MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
SEEMS TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF RAIN BY KEEPING THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN EDGE.
NAM-WRF IS MORE AGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CAN BE TRACKED BACK TO THE EXTENT TO
WHICH EACH MODEL DIGS THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM-WRF KEEPS MORE ENERGY TIDED UP IN THE LOW WHILE
THE GFS OPENS THE WAVE UP AND SHEARS IT ENERGY OUT INTO THE
WESTERLIES. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...THIS DOES NOT AFFECT THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGHS MOVEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE GFS FINALLY MOVES THE AXIS TO OUR EAST WHILE THE THE NAM-WRF
STILL HAS IT TO OUR WEST.

PREFERENCE IN MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR THE NAM-WRF. THOUGHTS
ARE THAT THE GFS IS LIMITING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TOO
MUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF THE 850MB LOW. EVEN WITH THE NAM-WRF AS
THE PREFERRED MODEL QUESTIONS EXIST AS TO WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE. WILL THE RAINS SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...OR
JUMP NORTH QUICKLY? FOR THIS REASON I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT PIN
DOWN MORE ACCURATELY WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WONT BE...AND THEREFORE
DECIDE WHERE TO PLACE ANY NEEDED FLOOD WATCH.

OTHERWISE...CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SAINT JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE LINE.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH HIGHLAND AND TROY KANSAS.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI
 THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
 SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...HAS
 FALLEN OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
 AND THE KANSAS CITY METRO. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
 RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO  FLASH
 FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG URBAN AREAS AND HIGHLY RESPONSIVE
 RIVERS AND CREEKS. PERSONS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED
 TO TAKE ACTION IF WATERS RISE RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
 SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

BOOKBINDER