Tornado Warning 66, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 272157
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
457 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC095-272230-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0066.000000T0000Z-060827T2230Z/
JACKSON MO-
457 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 456 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS 
STORM WAS LOCATED BETWEEN SUGAR CREEK AND INDEPENDENCE...MOVING EAST 
AT 15 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUCKNER...LEVASY AND SIBLEY BY 530 PM CDT.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 3917 9438 3908 9440 3908 9411 3920 9416

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 272209
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
509 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC095-272230-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0066.000000T0000Z-060827T2230Z/
JACKSON MO-
509 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS 
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN INDEPENDENCE...AS IS NOW MOVING TO 
THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUCKNER BY 530 PM CDT.

INDEPENDENCE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PERSONNEL WERE REPORTING STRONG 
CLOUD ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. THE TORNADO WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED 
TO BE EXTENDED INTO EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY SHORTLY.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 3914 9436 3908 9440 3908 9411 3916 9417

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 272222
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

MOC095-272230-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0066.000000T0000Z-060827T2230Z/
JACKSON MO-
519 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 510 PM CDT...AN OFF DUTY WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED A 
TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR INDEPENDENCE CENTER.  THIS STORM WAS 
PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR HIGHWAY 7 JUST EAST OF INDEPENDENCE...AND 
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT VERY STRONG ROTATION. THIS STORM WAS MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. 

THIS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OF 
INDEPENDENCE...REMAINING SOUTH OF BUCKNER AND GENERALLY NORTH OF 
INTERSTATE 70.

A TORNADO HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS STORM

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 3914 9436 3908 9440 3908 9411 3916 9417

$$

BOOKBINDER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
247 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR NRN MO...THEN DRAPED SWD ALONG THE KANSAS PORTION OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST HAS GIVEN WAY TO A FEW BREAKS IN
THE QUASI-WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80
DEGREES. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...GIVEN AVAILABLE 12Z KTOP SOUNDING...THIS
IS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS ALREADY
BLOSSOMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEAK...OWING TO A VERY NEUTRAL/SATURATED SOUNDING...MORE TYPICAL OF
THE DEEP TROPICS. HOWEVER...VERY NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 RANGE SUPPORT AN
ONGOING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVERTOPPED BY A PERSISTENT MOIST SWRLY MID-HIGH LEVEL PLUME.

HAVE WORKED UP A DETAILED PNS/RAINFALL MAP OF THE LAST 3 DAYS WHICH
I HOPE TO HAVE POSTED TO THE WEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANYWHERE FROM
2.50 TO LOCALLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO
TRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE. AGAIN...EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE VIVID LIGHTNING SHOWS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ACCOMPANY MANY CELLS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS CONTINUES
EAST...SCOURING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE RESULT MAY BE
SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG OVER WRN MO/ERN KS
LATER TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH SHORT TERM CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT.

RAIN CHANCES DONT END THERE HOWEVER AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAINTAINED SWRLY UPPER FLOW...COMBINED
WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES (MAINLY DIURNAL) THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL (ALBEIT MUGGY) FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S LOOKING QUITE
PROMISING.

BOOKBINDER

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GENERATION OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
BY MID WEEK. AN END TO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MILD...RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMALS...FROM MID TO LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK...AS AN EASTERLY FETCH TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
DELAY ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
COMES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH HOW SOON TO GENERATE A CLOSED LOW...AND IN
TURN HOW FAST TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM EAST. THE 06Z GFS CUTOFF THE
LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND WYOMING BY FRIDAY...KEEPING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER MANITOBA
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...AND BRINGS THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. KEPT WHAT WERE ALREADY SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY WHICH WERE CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS TIMING.

STOFLET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006/
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SPREADING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. STORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITH THE
HELP OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE 800MB  AND 700MB LEVEL WITHIN
THE MOISTURE PLUME.

ALREADY THIS MORNING SOME FLOODING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE KANSAS CITY
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE NEED FOR SOME KIND OF
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.

BOTH MODELS WANT TO PAINT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL DAY LONG...AND THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE NAM-WRF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT SPINS UP A 850MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
SEEMS TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF RAIN BY KEEPING THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN EDGE.
NAM-WRF IS MORE AGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CAN BE TRACKED BACK TO THE EXTENT TO
WHICH EACH MODEL DIGS THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM-WRF KEEPS MORE ENERGY TIDED UP IN THE LOW WHILE
THE GFS OPENS THE WAVE UP AND SHEARS IT ENERGY OUT INTO THE
WESTERLIES. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...THIS DOES NOT AFFECT THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGHS MOVEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE GFS FINALLY MOVES THE AXIS TO OUR EAST WHILE THE THE NAM-WRF
STILL HAS IT TO OUR WEST.

PREFERENCE IN MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR THE NAM-WRF. THOUGHTS
ARE THAT THE GFS IS LIMITING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TOO
MUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF THE 850MB LOW. EVEN WITH THE NAM-WRF AS
THE PREFERRED MODEL QUESTIONS EXIST AS TO WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE. WILL THE RAINS SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...OR
JUMP NORTH QUICKLY? FOR THIS REASON I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT PIN
DOWN MORE ACCURATELY WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WONT BE...AND THEREFORE
DECIDE WHERE TO PLACE ANY NEEDED FLOOD WATCH.

OTHERWISE...CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SAINT JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE LINE.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH HIGHLAND AND TROY KANSAS.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI
 THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
 SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...HAS
 FALLEN OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
 AND THE KANSAS CITY METRO. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
 RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO  FLASH
 FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG URBAN AREAS AND HIGHLY RESPONSIVE
 RIVERS AND CREEKS. PERSONS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED
 TO TAKE ACTION IF WATERS RISE RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
 SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

BOOKBINDER