Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
217 PM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AS OF 18Z THE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED WARM-CORE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NUEVO
PROGRESO MEXICO...CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD.  A WEAKER
CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD.  THE
WHOLE WARM CORE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SWD TNT AS THE
MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL TX PUSHES STEADILY SEWD.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE...AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1200 AND 1800 J/KG
AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LYR CONVERGENCE WL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FFA
THROUGH 600 PM TNT DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AND THE ONGOING HVY RAIN
EVENT. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS THOUGH...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HVY
RAIN WL QUICKLY END. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TNT...DRIER AIR WL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA. A CONTINUED DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EAST IN THE AFTN.
LEANED TWDS THE ETA MOS FOR TEMPS. A BIT MORE OF A SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TMW BUT STILL QUITE WEAK. SEA CONDITIONS WL REMAIN FAIRLY
FLAT GIVEN THE WK THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE ONLY AVIATION
CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY FOG TNT ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND.
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED IFR VSBYS BETWEEN
09-14Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH UPPER LOW
OVER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER HIGH OVER DESERT SW PRODUCING NRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST SOME
SEABREEZE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.  DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE
CONCERNED WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OFFSHORE
SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK INCREASING A BIT TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  88  71  91  71  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  89  70  91  70  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  95  73  97  73  /  30  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  70  92  70  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  87  72  89  73  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  94  71  96  71  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  90  71  91  71  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...AND VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

MB/80...SHORT-TERM
MW/98...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1014 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-031300-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1014 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 PM TODAY FOR
ARANSAS...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
NUECES...SAN PATRICIO AND KLEBERG COUNTIES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1014 AM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     FLOOD            PORT LAVACA             28.61N 96.62W
06/02/2006                   CALHOUN            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RESIDENTIAL FLOODING REPORTED ACROSS THE CITY.

&&

MWILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1021 AM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W PREMONT             27.36N 98.21W
06/02/2006                   JIM WELLS          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD 428 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

MWILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 AM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KINGSVILLE              27.51N 97.86W
06/02/2006                   KLEBERG            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS IN KLEBERG COUNTY ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER. LAW ENFORECEMENT IS DISCOURAGING TRAVEL THROUGHOUT
            THE COUNTY.

&&

MWILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
215 PM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KINGSVILLE              27.51N 97.86W
06/02/2006                   KLEBERG            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS IN KINGSVILLE AND RICARDO REMAIN BARRICADED
            DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

RMORALES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
218 PM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W PREMONT             27.36N 98.16W
06/02/2006                   JIM WELLS          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD 428 REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. MANY
            OTHER ROADS STILL COVERED WITH WATER, BUT PASSABLE BY
            TRUCKS AND/OR LARGE CARS.

&&

RMORALES