Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

.UPDATE...MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. IF 18Z GFS IS
CORRECT...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING MORE ALONG THE COAST
AOA 06Z MAINLY SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF NAM IS
CORRECT...WILL BE LESS PRECIP AND FLOODING LESS LIKELY. STILL ENOUGH
RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE WATCH
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE STILL SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER KLEBERG COUNTY. CONFIDENCE FOR WATCH OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA IS LOWER SINCE MODELS TEND TO BRING
THE HEAVIER CONVECTION SOUTH. STILL...WOULD RATHER BE SAFE AND
KEEP WATCH THERE AS WELL RATHER THAN FINE TUNE AREA TOO MUCH. OTHER
THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOISTURE GRIDS...WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO LATTER PERIODS AT THIS
TIME...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE DRYING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
RAIN SHOULD BE NIL FOR SATURDAY AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ISOLATED CELL CROSSING INTO KLEBERG COUNTY NEAR KNQI HAS RESULTED
IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 2.5 INCHES SINCE 7 PM HAS PROMPTED FFW FOR
THAT COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CORPUS CHRISTI WARNING AREA MAINLY CONFINED MAINLY EAST OF STATE
ROUTE 16. 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS FROM THE
SURFACE TO 500 MB IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS.  01Z RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF PREMONT.  THIS SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE RGV DURING
THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE THROUGH
06Z TO 12Z.  BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES (18Z-00Z) AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY WEAK EAST FLOW TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME NUMEROUS AOA 06Z NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN BAYS ALONG
CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH LACK OF CAP. NO CHANGES TO LATTER PERIODS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006)

UPDATE...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT EARLY SO IT CAN GET TO THE MEDIA FOR THE 6 PM BROADCAST.
FEEL BEST SHOT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER SAN PATRICIO...
NUECES AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. GFS SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AT 06Z...JUST LIKE IT DID ON
THE 18Z RUN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...SO MUCH RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
FARTHER NORTH THAT DO NOT WANT TO BE TOO CUTE WITH TRIMMING THE
WATCH THAT FINELY. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE SAME COUNTIES IN THE WATCH AS
BEFORE...ALTHOUGH BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE
LOWER THAN THEY ARE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES. OTHER
THAN CHANGES TO THE PRECIP GRIDS...DID NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION CENTER
IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ALICE...MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK
TNT...TAKING IT INTO DEEP SOUTH TX BY FRI MORNING. THIS WL SHIFT
THE AXIS OF HVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREA OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT FFA GOES THROUGH 00Z TNT
ACROSS THE ERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EARLIER HVY RAINS AND EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TNT...THIS WATCH WL LKLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
IN TIME THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRIDAY WL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA UNDER A
DEEPENING NLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WL LKLY BE TWO RAIN EPISODES ON
FRI. LINGERING PCPN ASSCTD WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WL OCCUR IN THE MORNING. RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING ON FRI AFTN WL PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND
OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WL GENERALLY GO WITH GOOD CHC/LKLY POPS
ACROSS THE EAST WITH CHC POPS OUT WEST THROUGH FRI. LEANED TWDS
THE COOLER ETA NUMBERS FOR TEMPS. A WK PRESSURE AND THERMAL
GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE WK FLOW OVER THE WATERS AND THE 2-4 FT
SEAS.

AVIATION (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...MVFR CEILINGS WL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TNT. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS WITHIN
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM 08-16Z FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AFTER NOON ON FRIDAY.

LONG-TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE OF RAINFALL OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
INLAND MAINLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH RIDGE DEVELOPING OUT TO OUR WEST...WE WILL
STAY IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY
THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS
AND A GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND. SO AFTER SATURDAY MORNING...NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.  SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...AND VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

GW/86...UPDATE
RM/33...SHORT-TERM

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...AND VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

SC/70...MESO/AVIATION
GW/86...GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-021100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
638 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS...WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 5 AND
10 INCHES.

AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR COASTAL
COUNTIES AS WELL AS VICTORIA...GOLIAD AND BEE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR/WC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1027 PM CDT THU JUN 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FLOOD            KINGSVILLE              27.51N 97.86W
06/01/2006                   KLEBERG            TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL COUNTY AND FARM TO MARKET ROADS FLOODED...
            INCLUDING FM 1118...CR 1050...CR 1070...CR 2130...AND
            TRENT ROAD UP TO HIGHWAY 77.

&&

GWILK

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