Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
510 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN AMAZING 36 HOURS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND OF S TX. WILL KEEP IT SHORT AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO
ONGOING WX ACROSS KLEBERG AND NUECES. AN INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN ACROSS KLEBERG COUNTY OVERNIGHT...WITH SATELLITE PRECIP
ESTIMATES AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWING OVER 20 OF RAIN MAY HAVE
FALLEN JUST EAST OF RICARDO. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO (AND INTO SRN JIM
WELLS)...ALONG CONV AXIS STRETCHING OFF INTO THE DEEP S TX NEARSHORE
WATERS. ADTNL RWS WILL CONT FORMING THIS MORNING FROM NUECES COUNTY
EAST INTO THE GULF...ALONG SECOND AXIS.

OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SWD TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS FOCUS...AS
MID/UPR LVL CIRCULATION OPENS AND DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND DEEP S TX. EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NUECES AND KLEBERG (AND EXPANDED IT TO JIM WELLS) THRU THE AFTN.

SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO S TX THIS EVENING AS UPR LVL RDG
BUILDS ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND TAIL END OF UPR LVL TROF SLIDES THRU
NE TX AND INTO DEEP S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE
TO PROG THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION FROM THE NW...
WITH THE UPPER N-S RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING THE CWFA LONGITUDES
LATER IN THE PERIOD. BASED ON SELECTED GFS SOUNDINGS...BEFORE
MONDAY...MOISTURE/MINIMAL CIN SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION.
HWR...UPPER SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THUS WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN.
MON-THU...INCREASING CIN SHOULD PRECLUDE ACTIVITY. THUS...DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE EARLY MORNING FOG
SUNDAY/MONDAY OWING TO DRYING ALOFT/NEAR SFC MSTR. INCREASING LEE
SIDE SFC TROUGH WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TUE-
THU...WHICH WL LIKELY CONTRIBUE TO LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  88  71  90  /  70  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          85  67  88  70  90  /  40  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            89  72  93  73  95  /  40  10  10  10  10
ALICE             85  69  89  70  91  /  60  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  72  86  72  88  /  60  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           89  68  93  71  95  /  30  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        84  70  88  71  90  /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...AND NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

JR/76...SHORT-TERM
WC/87...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-021100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
638 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS...WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 5 AND
10 INCHES.

AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR COASTAL
COUNTIES AS WELL AS VICTORIA...GOLIAD AND BEE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR/WC

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