Tornado Warning 65, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 151140
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
540 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

ALC091-151215-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0065.000000T0000Z-061115T1215Z/
MARENGO AL-
540 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CST FOR SOUTHERN
MARENGO COUNTY...

AT 540 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PUTNAM...OR ABOUT
15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUTLER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  SWEET WATER BY 550 AM CST
  DIXONS MILL BY 555 AM CST
  SHILOH AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF MILLER BY 600 AM CST
  SURGINER...VINELAND AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF OCTAGON BY 605 AM CST
  MAGNOLIA BY 610 AM CST

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3212 8801 3206 8811 3200 8808 3200 8767
      3201 8763 3224 8764

$$

MBS/91

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 151159
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

ALC091-151215-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0065.000000T0000Z-061115T1215Z/
MARENGO AL-
559 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CST FOR SOUTHERN
MARENGO COUNTY...

AT 559 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SWEET WATER...OR
ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTH OF LINDEN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  SHILOH AND SURGINER BY 605 AM CST
  MAGNOLIA AND VINELAND BY 610 AM CST

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3213 8792 3205 8797 3200 8798 3200 8767
      3201 8763 3224 8764

$$

MBS/91

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 151215
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

ALC091-151225-
/O.EXP.KBMX.TO.W.0065.000000T0000Z-061115T1215Z/
MARENGO AL-
615 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MARENGO COUNTY EXPIRES AT 
615 AM CST...

AT 615 AM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3213 8792 3205 8797 3200 8798 3200 8767
      3201 8763 3224 8764

$$

MBS/91

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
441 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

HELLO WEATHER FANS. THE STARS ARE ALIGNING FOR TODAYS EVENT. DEEP SFC
LOW THAT DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD...NOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN AR. CONVECTION IS
NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT ACROSS
AROUND SHV. ALSO SEE CONVECTION BUILDING IN CENTRAL AR ON THE
NORTHERN TRIPLE POINT. NOTE I SAID NORTHERN. I THINK THIS IS MORE
OF A MODIFIED AIRMASS/SFC TROF. THE BONAFIED WARM FRONT IS INTO
SOUTHERN AR/MS AND A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHWESTERN AL. THE BIG PUSH
HAS BEGUN FROM THE SOUTH. FOR US THERE IS ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND WERE WATCHING THE FRONT.

NOW FOR TODAY. GOING TO SET THE MAGIC REALIZED SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TODAY ON DEWPOINTS. DRUM-ROLL PLEASE...63 TO 65
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DO THE TRICK. WITH THAT IN MIND...TODAYS
FORECASTED MAGIC LINE REMAINS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. OF COURSE WE COULD SEE SOME STUFF NORTH OF THIS
LINE. PARDON THE INTERRUPTION...SPC JUST ISSUED THE FIRST TORNADO
WATCH OF THE DAY FOR US. CHECK THE USUAL OUTLETS. BACK TO THE
STORY...EXPECTING TWO ROUNDS TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...
THIS MORNINGS AND THEN WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE FRONT...ITS
HAULING. GOT IT TIMED FOR WESTERN AL AT AROUND 1130 AM...I-65 CORRIDOR
AROUND 200 PM...AND EASTERN AROUND 500 PM. ALL TALK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL ON THE TABLE.

AFTER THE FRONT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
DEAL WITH...PROBABLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN. SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT TOTALLY BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY SETTING US UP FOR A NICE SEASONAL WEEKEND. WILL SEE ANOTHER
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE MORNING COORDINATION.

JONES/90

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FROM THE 18 Z PACKAGE...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...RESULTING IN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000 AND
5000 FEET BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CURRENTLY ON RADAR SHOULD
END SHORTLY AT TUSCALOOSA AND CONTINUE THROUGH 4Z OR SO ELSEWHERE.
WITH AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GIVEN BY MODELS...I
THINK THAT ONCE RAIN MOVES IN IT WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION
PERHAPS RIGHT ON THROUGH 1800 UTC TOMORROW.  BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ASSOCIATED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...WILL BE
IN THE WEST HALF (TCL...EET...BHM).  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
BRISK...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 20 KTS...WITH 40 TO 50 KNOT
WINDS AT 3000 FEET.  BY 20Z...THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN
END...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN NORTHERN AL AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE.

12/SIRMON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  46  50  34 / 100  80  40  20
ANNISTON    68  48  50  37 / 100  80  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  66  46  49  36 / 100  70  40  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  47  50  35 / 100  50  30  10
CALERA      67  46  49  38 / 100  60  30  10
AUBURN      66  46  51  38 / 100  70  20  20
MONTGOMERY  71  48  54  36 / 100  60  20  10
TROY        73  47  52  36 / 100  60  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AL UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
825 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-160230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
825 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND ARRIVE IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 8 AM. THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM AND EXIT THE STATE BY 6 PM.  HOWEVER...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...SEVERE STORMS WITH WINDS NEAR 70 MPH
AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8 AM THROUGH 6 PM. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO BIRMINGHAM...TO HEFLIN.  HOWEVER...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINAGE AREAS FROM FALLING LEAVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY.

12/SIRMON