Severe Thunderstorm Warning 378, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

.UPDATE...WEATHER AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.UPDATE...

GOING TO CHANGE MY TUNE A LITTLE. WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH THOSE MAGICAL DEWPOINTS. ALSO OF
NOTE IS THE SQUALL-LINE FILLING IN NICELY WITH A HUGE DRY SLOT
PUSHING IT. FOR THE LINE...ITS HAULING. NEED TO ADJUST ARRIVAL
TIMES SOME. THINKING THE STATE LINE BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM...I-65
CORRIDOR AROUND NOON...AND EAST AL BY 2 TO 3 PM. ALSO HAD TO
ADJUST THE THREAT AREA. WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT
ETOWAH...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...AND CLEBURNE FOR TORNADO THREAT. FEEL
THE MAGIC LINE WILL NOT REACH THESE COUNTIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS...

HELLO WEATHER FANS. THE STARS ARE ALIGNING FOR TODAYS EVENT. DEEP SFC
LOW THAT DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD...NOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN AR. CONVECTION IS
NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT ACROSS
AROUND SHV. ALSO SEE CONVECTION BUILDING IN CENTRAL AR ON THE
NORTHERN TRIPLE POINT. NOTE I SAID NORTHERN. I THINK THIS IS MORE
OF A MODIFIED AIRMASS/SFC TROF. THE BONAFIED WARM FRONT IS INTO
SOUTHERN AR/MS AND A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHWESTERN AL. THE BIG PUSH
HAS BEGUN FROM THE SOUTH. FOR US THERE IS ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND WERE WATCHING THE FRONT.

NOW FOR TODAY. GOING TO SET THE MAGIC REALIZED SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TODAY ON DEWPOINTS. DRUM-ROLL PLEASE...63 TO 65
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DO THE TRICK. WITH THAT IN MIND...TODAYS
FORECASTED MAGIC LINE REMAINS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. OF COURSE WE COULD SEE SOME STUFF NORTH OF THIS
LINE. PARDON THE INTERRUPTION...SPC JUST ISSUED THE FIRST TORNADO
WATCH OF THE DAY FOR US. CHECK THE USUAL OUTLETS. BACK TO THE
STORY...EXPECTING TWO ROUNDS TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...
THIS MORNINGS AND THEN WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE FRONT...ITS
HAULING. GOT IT TIMED FOR WESTERN AL AT AROUND 1130 AM...I-65 CORRIDOR
AROUND 200 PM...AND EASTERN AROUND 500 PM. ALL TALK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL ON THE TABLE.

AFTER THE FRONT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
DEAL WITH...PROBABLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN. SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT TOTALLY BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY SETTING US UP FOR A NICE SEASONAL WEEKEND. WILL SEE ANOTHER
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE MORNING COORDINATION.

JONES/90

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 600 TO 1500 FEET. FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

99

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
825 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-160230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
825 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND ARRIVE IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 8 AM. THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM AND EXIT THE STATE BY 6 PM.  HOWEVER...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...SEVERE STORMS WITH WINDS NEAR 70 MPH
AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8 AM THROUGH 6 PM. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO BIRMINGHAM...TO HEFLIN.  HOWEVER...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOGGED
DRAINAGE AREAS FROM FALLING LEAVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY.

12/SIRMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
911 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

ALZ011>013-151615-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-
911 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR FAYETTE...LAMAR AND MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CST...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM...

...A LINE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...

AT 909 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18 MILES WEST OF BEXAR TO 29 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MOLLOY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALSO DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR
BEXAR...DETROIT...MOLLOY...WESTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...HAMILTON AND
BEAVERTON THROUGH 1015 AM CST.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. NOW IS THE
TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT YOURSELF IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

JD/81