Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

CORRECTED THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS TURNED INTO A BUSY AFTERNOON ROUND HERE. TEMPERATURES
SOARED INTO THE LOW 90S RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING
CAPES UP TO 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO 40
KNOTS AND A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT HAVE
RESULTED IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM AND SEVERAL STORMS HAVE SHOWN
RESPECTABLE ROTATION SIGNATURES.

BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES AREA
WIDE BY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW. UNLIKE
TODAY...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE FEATURE TO FOCUS LIFT...THUS WILL
GO WITH A PRETTY UNIFORM CHANCE OF RAIN...AROUND 50 PERCENT. ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP TO FOCUS THE INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BUT ITS WAY TOO SOON TO MAKE THAT CALL.
ADDITIONALLY...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW...WHICH
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES AS WARM OR WARMER THAN
TODAY. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...AROUND 4000 FEET. PERHAPS THE TEN THOUSAND
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW SOON THESE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF....WHICH
WILL HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE ON THE AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS WELL AS
THE TIME THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEY
TOMORROW AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARMUP
INTO THE UPPER 80S...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY 2 PM. AS FAR
AS SEVERITY...NOT EXPECTING THE DYNAMICS TO BE IN PLACE
TOMORROW...BUT AGAIN...THE KEY WILL BE HEATING. NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS...UNLESS TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF HAND.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND SOME
CLEARING MAY RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD APPROACH TUSCALOOSA BY 11 AM...BIRMINGHAM SHORTLY
AFTER NOON...ANNISTON AND MONTGOMERY BY 3 PM...AND EXIT OUR AREA
BY 6 PM. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS JUST AHEAD
OF OR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. A FAVORABLY POSITIONED UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. STRONG WINDS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF SEVERE ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
TORNADOES CAN ALWAYS SPIN UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.

MONDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MARKING THE ONSET OF CLEARER...COOLER DRY CONDITIONS...MUCH
LIKE WE EXPERIENCED LAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS POISED TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON
THE MORE PRESSING ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

12/SIRMON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXISTS AT MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MIXED. THEREFORE...WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AT ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AND WINDS ARE A BIT MORE UNIFORM
THROUGH A FEW THOUSAND FEET. THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT ANB...WITH CUMULUS FIELD LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS.
WILL PLUG IN A FEW MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VCTS. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
INSTALLED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z LIFTING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUST OF WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE LIMITED IN TEMPORAL SCALE AT
ANY TERMINAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  88  71  78 /  40  50  40  70
ANNISTON    67  86  71  80 /  40  50  40  70
BIRMINGHAM  72  88  72  79 /  40  50  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  72  83 /  30  40  50  70
CALERA      71  88  71  80 /  40  50  40  70
AUBURN      69  88  70  82 /  30  30  20  70
MONTGOMERY  71  90  73  87 /  50  40  30  70
TROY        70  89  72  84 /  30  40  20  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...A TORNAOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...SHELBY...WALKER...COOSA
ST. CLAIR...JEFFERSON...TALLADEGA...CALHOUN...CLAY
TALLAPOOSA...MARION...WINSTON...FAYETTE AND LAMAR.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
MARION...LAMAR...FAYETTE...WINSTON...WALKER...BLOUNT...ETOWAH
CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA...JEFFERSON...SHELBY ST.
CLAIR...TALLADEGA...SUMTER...GREENE...HALE...PERRY...BIBB AND
MARENGO.

&&

07/07/07

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             ODENVILLE               33.69N 86.40W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       ST. CLAIR          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY EMA.

&&

KSUMRALL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
547 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TALLADEGA               33.43N 86.10W
09/22/2006                   TALLADEGA          AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TALLADEGA POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED TREES DOWN ON HOME
            AT 114 DOGWOOD CIRCLE.

&&

JBW