Tornado Warning 50, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1207 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.UPDATE...UPDATE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD AND WAS THROUGH BIRMINGHAM AND
AUBURN. THE NEW AIRMASS IS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND WILL REACH ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD WITH A FEW
PLACES SOUTHWEST AROUND 90. SINCE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY...TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS...
AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN MOST OTHER INSTANCES...THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD GENERALLY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. BUT DUE TO FORECAST STORM
MOTION UP TO 30 KNOTS...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
MOVE QUICKLY AND COVER SOME GROUND. THEREFORE...INSTALLED LIKELY AT
ALL LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST. A FEW STRONG
STORMS STILL POSSIBLE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MONITOR THE STATE OF
THE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA.
BUT WIND SHEAR/WINDS ALOFT/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXISTS AT MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MIXED. THEREFORE...WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AT ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AND WINDS ARE A BIT MORE UNIFORM
THROUGH A FEW THOUSAND FEET. THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT ANB...WITH CUMULUS FIELD LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS.
WILL PLUG IN A FEW MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VCTS. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
INSTALLED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z LIFTING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUST OF WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE LIMITED IN TEMPORAL SCALE AT
ANY TERMINAL.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CENTRE...TO SYLACAUGA...TO LINDEN.

&&

75/LINHARES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
716 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-231200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
716 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM...FROM THE CITIES OF DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...
TUSCALOOSA...AND SELMA...WESTWARD TO THE STATE LINE.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IS WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY
IN THE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A SMALL THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL COME ON SUNDAY...STARTING AROUND 8 AM
IN THE NORTHWEST AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

61