Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
OBVIOUSLY, A VERY BUSY DAY TODAY...SO WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND
SIMPLE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OHIO SWD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. JUST AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
WORK IT/S WAY NORTHWARD...EXTENDING FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ATTM. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR WITH MUCH HIGHER IN CONVECTION. HAVE JUST RECEIVED A
RELIABLE RAINFALL REPORT OF OVER ONE INCH IN 15 MINUTES. MANY AREAS
ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES AVERAGE THROUGH WED
MORNING..AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS UP TO 5 INCHES DUE TO CONVECTIVE
AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE...MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE IN
STORE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA.

THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING THE FRONT AND PRECIP OUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE NAM DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
HOLDS IT BACK LONGER. HAVE TRENDED TWD CONSISTENT GFS. EITHER WAY,
WILL SEE AN IMPROVING TREND WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP DURING THE DAY
AS THE MOITURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED VARIETY SHRA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION (26/18Z TO 27/18Z)...
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED TRWS WILL CONT THRU THE PD.
THRU 00Z...XPCT MAINLY BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR CONDS AS THE PCPN
REMAINS SCT. LTR TNGTR AND EARLY ON WED...A BROAD AREA OF PCPN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH A MORE STEADY AREA OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHD DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AFT 06Z MOST STATIONS...AND LINGER THERE
UNTIL AT LEAST 12 TO 14Z WED.

MORFORD

&&

.LONG RANGE (THU NIGHT - MONDAY)...

FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF...AND
ASSOCIATED WET AND COOL CONDS...THRU THE PD. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION TO THE TROF SHD BE BKN BY THE BEGGINNING OF THE
PD...SO WHILE A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN THRU MUCH OF THE
PD...AMTS WILL BE LGT. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS...AND CLOSE TO HPC
FOR POPS. MORFORD
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062 UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY.
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072 UNTIL
NOON EDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
341 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-280745-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
341 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANY RAIN THAT
FALLS WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...CAUSING
MANY TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO ALBFFABGM
WGUS61 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN SUPPORT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH OR GREATER.

PB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MECKLENBURG             42.47N 76.70W
06/27/2006                   SCHUYLER           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1.10 INCHES IN 10 MINUTES. ROADS CLOSED AND DRIVEWAY
            WASHOUTS.

&&

MJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
453 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BATH                    42.34N 77.32W
06/27/2006                   STEUBEN            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
544 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAROLINE                42.38N 76.30W
06/27/2006                   TOMPKINS           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT. ROADS CLOSED.

&&

MJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
559 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAVERLY                 42.01N 76.54W
06/27/2006                   TIOGA              NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FIRST FLOOR OF HOUSES UNDER WATER. ALSO MAJOR FLOODING IN
            CAMPBELL. 1 INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN TIOGA TERRACE.

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FREETOWN CORNERS        42.52N 76.03W
06/27/2006                   CORTLAND           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTES 11 AND 41 CLOSED. ALSO FLOODING IN SOLON.

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WYALUSING               41.67N 76.26W
06/27/2006                   BRADFORD           PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED OR WASHED OUT IN EASTERN BRADFORD
            COUNTY.

&&

MJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
612 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LANESBORO               41.96N 75.58W
06/27/2006                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSES UNDER WATER. RESIDENTS BEING EVACUATED.

&&

MJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
623 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORWICH                 42.53N 75.52W
06/27/2006                   CHENANGO           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTYWIDE REPORTS OF HOUSES AND ROADS FLOODED

0615 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HARFORD                 41.78N 75.70W
06/27/2006                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD WASHOUTS. 1 INCH IN 15 MINUTES.

0615 PM     FLASH FLOOD      UNION CENTER            42.15N 76.07W
06/27/2006                   BROOME             NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 26 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MJC