Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
908 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO WEATHER AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO.  RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTH INTO FA IN AREA OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...AS TROF
REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS EAST.  CONVECTION
INCREASING AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT.  THIS IS ALL STREAMING NORTH INTO AREAS THAT CANNOT
HANDLE ANY MORE RAINFALL AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT TO PCPN THIS MORNING.  BACK EDGE OF PCPN BEGINNING TO
ENTER SRN ZONES...BUT JUST AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE AN END MORE
DEVELOPS.  THIS WILL BE THE TREND MOST OF THE DAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS
SATD WITH PW VALUES NEARING 2.00 INCHES AND 40KT LLJ CONTINUING.  FA
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN DIVERGENCE AREA OF UL JET...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY.

RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO BUILD FAR ENOUGH WEST TO LEAD TO JUST SCTD
PCPN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TODAY.  DRYING BEING SEEN ON WV HAS
PUSHED INTO NJ AND SHUNTING PCPN TWD CENTRAL/WRN AREAS CURRENTLY.
HOWEVER...ANY SUN THAT MAKES IT THRU TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ACROSS
POCONOS AND CATSKILLS.  GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND FFG VERY LOW
IN THESE AREAS...POSSIBILITY OF FLDG REMAINS TODAY AS STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.  HAVE SIDED WITH GFS/CANGEM
GUIDANCE AS WRF HAS HAD TENDENCY TO SHUNT PCPN BACK WEST TOO QUICKLY
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  GFS AND CANGEM KEEPS HEAVY RAIN AXIS FURTHER
EAST AND PREFER THEIR QPF DEPICTION.

SCENARIO GOES QUICKLY DOWNHILL TONIGHT.  TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY OFF
THE FL/GA COAST WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN MOISTURE PLUME AND RIDE NORTH
QUICKLY TONIGHT.  GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH SYSTEM AND SPREADS PCPN
INTO FA ARND 06Z.  WRF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND KEEPS HEAVIEST RAIN
OUT OF AREA UNTIL 12Z OR SO.  ONCE AGAIN...PREFER GFS SOLN AND WILL
INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONSIDERING
THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND STRONG THETA-E CONVERGENCE OVER REGION.  AN
ADDNL 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON ANY CONVECTION.  HPC HAS ALMOST ENTIRE
FCST AREA IN MODERATE RISK FOR XCSV RAIN...WITH HIGH RISK DEPICTED
FOR AT LEAST HALF OF THE FA.

THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA-WIDE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST TIMING.  THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS GROUND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SATURATED.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR RAIN TO RUN OFF
INTO AREA RIVERS AND SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
-PB

&&

.AVIATION (27/06Z TO 28/06Z)...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING IS LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
PA NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NY... INCLUDING THE ELM...ITH AND SYR TAF
SITES. EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS... BUT ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOCALLY IFR
IN HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THRU TONIGHT... OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS. BEST CHC FOR THUNDER
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.  -MSE

&&

.LONG RANGE (WED NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
WET CONDS CONT AS THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF. TROF
AXIS GNRLY CNTRD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND VARIOUS SHRT WVS WILL
ROTATE THRU KEEPING THE AREA UNSTABLE WITH THE RISK OF A SHWR AT
ALMOST ANY TIME. MADE ONLY SLGT ADJUSTMENTS TO HPC GUID IN TEMPS AND
POPS.  -MORFORD

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062 UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072 UNTIL 8
AM EDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
341 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-280745-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
341 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANY RAIN THAT
FALLS WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...CAUSING
MANY TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO ALBFFABGM
WGUS61 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN SUPPORT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH OR GREATER.

PB