Storm Warning 74, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 281258
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 981 MB LOW 360 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE PATTERN THIS MORNING LOOKS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM
YESTERDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE ALEUTIANS
YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVED WESTWARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE STATE.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED
ONSHORE IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HAS DEVELOPED INTO A SURFACE LOW AS
FORECAST ONCE IT GAINED THE COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT.  STEERING
FLOW IS PUSHING THIS LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  OUT WEST A LOW ALONG THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA IS PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD AND REBUILDING THE RIDGE IN
THE ALEUTIANS.  AS THIS CONTINUES THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE MAINLAND
BRINGING COLDER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.  THE NORTHERLY PUSH WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE LOW IN THE GULF TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE ENTIRE
PATTERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD.

OUT WEST...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE IS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WEST COAST.  SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO PERVADE THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE TOO WET FOR SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING SNOW AND THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED.  FURTHER
NORTH IN THE PRIBILOFS CONDITIONS ARE COLDER AND DRIER AND A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY. EXPECT GALES IN THE MARINES WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

IN THE EAST...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH IT.  EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OUT OF PASSES AS THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BRINGS STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.  VERY
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN BETWEEN ETA AND GFS EVEN IN THE LONG TERM.
GFS WAS USED IN THE WEST AND ETA USED IN THE EAST FOR IMPROVED LAND
RESOLUTION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WEEK.  AS THIS OCCURS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND REACH THE MAINLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST COAST
AGAIN AND SOME WARMER WEATHER AS WELL.  BY FRIDAY A LOW FORMS ALONG
THE TRIPLE POINT AND MOVES INTO THE GULF.  THE EASTERN SECTION WILL
SEE IMPROVED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE WARMER TEMPS AND PRECIP BY FRIDAY AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185
         STORM 130
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 160 165 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW FEB 06