Gale Warning 204, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE PATTERN THIS MORNING LOOKS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM
YESTERDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE ALEUTIANS
YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVED WESTWARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE STATE.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED
ONSHORE IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HAS DEVELOPED INTO A SURFACE LOW AS
FORECAST ONCE IT GAINED THE COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT.  STEERING
FLOW IS PUSHING THIS LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  OUT WEST A LOW ALONG THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA IS PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD AND REBUILDING THE RIDGE IN
THE ALEUTIANS.  AS THIS CONTINUES THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE MAINLAND
BRINGING COLDER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.  THE NORTHERLY PUSH WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE LOW IN THE GULF TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE ENTIRE
PATTERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD.

OUT WEST...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE IS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WEST COAST.  SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO PERVADE THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE TOO WET FOR SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING SNOW AND THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED.  FURTHER
NORTH IN THE PRIBILOFS CONDITIONS ARE COLDER AND DRIER AND A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY. EXPECT GALES IN THE MARINES WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

IN THE EAST...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH IT.  EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OUT OF PASSES AS THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BRINGS STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.  VERY
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN BETWEEN ETA AND GFS EVEN IN THE LONG TERM.
GFS WAS USED IN THE WEST AND ETA USED IN THE EAST FOR IMPROVED LAND
RESOLUTION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WEEK.  AS THIS OCCURS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND REACH THE MAINLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST COAST
AGAIN AND SOME WARMER WEATHER AS WELL.  BY FRIDAY A LOW FORMS ALONG
THE TRIPLE POINT AND MOVES INTO THE GULF.  THE EASTERN SECTION WILL
SEE IMPROVED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE WARMER TEMPS AND PRECIP BY FRIDAY AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185
         STORM 130
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 160 165 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW FEB 06