Storm Warning 73, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 281239
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE OVER
THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.  A 986 MB LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN TO 993 MB AND MOVE TO 40 NM NORTH OF GAMBELL BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THIS
MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE
FREE WATERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE
FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 16
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE PATTERN THIS MORNING LOOKS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM
YESTERDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE ALEUTIANS
YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVED WESTWARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE
HAS MOVED OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE STATE.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED
ONSHORE IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HAS DEVELOPED INTO A SURFACE LOW AS
FORECAST ONCE IT GAINED THE COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT.  STEERING
FLOW IS PUSHING THIS LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  OUT WEST A LOW ALONG THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA IS PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD AND REBUILDING THE RIDGE IN
THE ALEUTIANS.  AS THIS CONTINUES THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE MAINLAND
BRINGING COLDER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.  THE NORTHERLY PUSH WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE LOW IN THE GULF TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE ENTIRE
PATTERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD.

OUT WEST...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE IS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WEST COAST.  SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO PERVADE THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE TOO WET FOR SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING SNOW AND THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED.  FURTHER
NORTH IN THE PRIBILOFS CONDITIONS ARE COLDER AND DRIER AND A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY. EXPECT GALES IN THE MARINES WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

IN THE EAST...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH IT.  EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OUT OF PASSES AS THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BRINGS STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.  VERY
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN BETWEEN ETA AND GFS EVEN IN THE LONG TERM.
GFS WAS USED IN THE WEST AND ETA USED IN THE EAST FOR IMPROVED LAND
RESOLUTION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WEEK.  AS THIS OCCURS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND REACH THE MAINLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST COAST
AGAIN AND SOME WARMER WEATHER AS WELL.  BY FRIDAY A LOW FORMS ALONG
THE TRIPLE POINT AND MOVES INTO THE GULF.  THE EASTERN SECTION WILL
SEE IMPROVED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE WARMER TEMPS AND PRECIP BY FRIDAY AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185
         STORM 130
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 160 165 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW FEB 06