Storm Warning 233, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 060007
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 960 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO 150 NM EAST 
OF CHIGNIK WED NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO BRISTOL 
BAY THU. A 1007 MB LOW 700 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 
200 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON AT 986 MB AND THEN TO 300 NM 
SOUTH OF SAND POINT THU AFTERNOON AT 963 MB.

$$

PKZ150-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-061500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ170-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-061500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.  EAST OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-061500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-061500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY IS A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF SAND
POINT...AND A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND ONSHORE THE GULF COAST
LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW. THE STRONG LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD KODIAK THROUGH THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE STRONG JET AROUND 40N...KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER FROM THE
ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MAINLAND...AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ALEUTIANS
AND BERING SEA.

...MODELS...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THEN
HAVE MORE TROUBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW OR MULTIPLE
LOWS ALONG THE JET SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING TROUBLE WITH ITS
EVOLUTION EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS. DO BELIEVE
THAT ALMOST CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW RIDING THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND PROBABLY EVOLUTION OF
MULTIPLE INDIVIDUAL LOWS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
REMNANTS OF A LOW PRESSURE ARE RIDING NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THIS MORNING...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW
TO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IF
ANY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OVER THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO
THE WEST AND NORTH SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME STORM FORCE WINDS
IN THE MARINE ZONES...AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK SHOT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CHUGACH
AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST. IN FACT...AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO REALLY EASE ALONG THE
COAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE WARM
ALONG THE GULF COAST...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE PLACES WITH THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE IT FALL AS RAIN...WHILE THE PLACES THAT ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WILL HAVE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION. A PROBABLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHCENTRAL...WHERE HEAVY
SNOW COULD FALL MAINLY ABOVE THE ROAD SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
THOMPSON PASS.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
EXPECT A RETURN TO STEADY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG FRONT ROTATES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE. LIKE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEE LITTLE END TO THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM DILLINGHAM EAST AND FROM THE
NUSHAGAK HILLS SOUTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
WARM AIR TRYING TO SPILL OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO BRISTOL BAY.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEGINNING WEDNESDAY SEEMS TO BE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FROM KING SALMON EAST...WITH MOSTLY SNOW ELSEWHERE.

...ALEUTIAN/BERING SEA FORECAST...
STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE LOWS IS QUITE
LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON UNSETTLED PATTERN IS HIGH. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE COMMON FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. PERHAPS
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS IN STORE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS ZONES 120 AND 350.
         GALES WARNINGS ZONES 121 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170
         172 175 185 410.

FOISY DEC 06