Small Craft Advisory 1124, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY IS A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF SAND
POINT...AND A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND ONSHORE THE GULF COAST
LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW. THE STRONG LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD KODIAK THROUGH THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE STRONG JET AROUND 40N...KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER FROM THE
ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MAINLAND...AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ALEUTIANS
AND BERING SEA.

...MODELS...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THEN
HAVE MORE TROUBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW OR MULTIPLE
LOWS ALONG THE JET SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING TROUBLE WITH ITS
EVOLUTION EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS. DO BELIEVE
THAT ALMOST CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW RIDING THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND PROBABLY EVOLUTION OF
MULTIPLE INDIVIDUAL LOWS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
REMNANTS OF A LOW PRESSURE ARE RIDING NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THIS MORNING...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW
TO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IF
ANY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OVER THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO
THE WEST AND NORTH SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME STORM FORCE WINDS
IN THE MARINE ZONES...AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK SHOT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CHUGACH
AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST. IN FACT...AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO REALLY EASE ALONG THE
COAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE WARM
ALONG THE GULF COAST...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE PLACES WITH THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE IT FALL AS RAIN...WHILE THE PLACES THAT ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WILL HAVE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION. A PROBABLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHCENTRAL...WHERE HEAVY
SNOW COULD FALL MAINLY ABOVE THE ROAD SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
THOMPSON PASS.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
EXPECT A RETURN TO STEADY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG FRONT ROTATES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE. LIKE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEE LITTLE END TO THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM DILLINGHAM EAST AND FROM THE
NUSHAGAK HILLS SOUTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
WARM AIR TRYING TO SPILL OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO BRISTOL BAY.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEGINNING WEDNESDAY SEEMS TO BE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FROM KING SALMON EAST...WITH MOSTLY SNOW ELSEWHERE.

...ALEUTIAN/BERING SEA FORECAST...
STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE LOWS IS QUITE
LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON UNSETTLED PATTERN IS HIGH. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE COMMON FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. PERHAPS
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS IN STORE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS ZONES 120 AND 350.
         GALES WARNINGS ZONES 121 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170
         172 175 185 410.

FOISY DEC 06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
114 PM AST TUE DEC 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     FREEZING RAIN    ANCHORAGE               61.18N 149.19W
12/05/2006  E0.00 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE CORNER OF DEARMOUN
            AND NEW SEWARD HIGHWAY. A LIGHT GLAZE IS FORMING ON THE
            PAVEMENT.

0109 PM     FREEZING RAIN    ANCHORAGE               61.18N 149.19W
12/05/2006  E0.00 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE CORNERS OF 12TH
            AND GAMBELL...AS WELL AS AT ELMENDORF AIR FORCE BASE.

0109 PM     FREEZING RAIN    ANCHORAGE               61.18N 149.19W
12/05/2006  E0.00 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE CORNER OF DEARMOUN
            AND NEW SEWARD HIGHWAY. A SLIGHT GLAZE IS FORMING ON THE
            PAVEMENT.

&&

DANG