Gale Warning 985, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051815 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
915 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

UPDATED ZONE 130 132 138 140 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 962 MB LOW 390 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL
MOVE NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...MAKING
LANDFALL THIS EVENING. THE 962 MB LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO 160 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING
TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT 7 FT SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...E WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
915 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO NE 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT BY MORNING. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
915 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
915 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
915 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 
14 FT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
915 AM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON DEC 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...
A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW IS SITTING OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE MINIMAL. SNOW IN THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE IS TAPERING OFF AFTER OVER A FOOT OF SNOW THE PAST
DAY AND A HALF ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL BE FORCED NORTHWEST BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...BUT
ONLY AFFECT WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
OUT WEST THERE ARE TWO STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE OLDER
ONE IS SOUTH OF ATKA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTWESTWARD
BETWEEN KISKA AND ADAK AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. THERE IS
HEAVY PRECIP RIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO RESULT IN RAIN
AND SNOW MIXED AND THIE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TOT HE
BLIZZARD AND WE ARE ENDING THE BLIZZARD WARNING. PRECIP ADAK EASTWARD
IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD AND COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE SECOND LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS HAS GAINED THE SUPPORT OF A 200 KT JET ALONG 40N
AND LOTS OF COLD AIR FEEDING INTO IT. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT ANOTHER
LOW MAY BE FORMING EAST OF THIS LOW. SATELLITE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE LATEST TRENDS BECAUSE MODELS DO NOT
USUALLY PICK UP ON THE MULTIPLE LOW DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS...NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE PERFECT POSITIONS ON THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOWS...BUT ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL SOLUTION THROUGH ABOUT
48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT UKMET/NAM INDICATE ANOTHER LOW FORMING OVER
THE EAST PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING UP TO THE EASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THIS SOLUTION OVER THE GFS SINCE THE DYNAMICS
FOR LOW FORMATION OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAIN VERY GOOD.

.FORECAST...A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOMINANT NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TUE AND TO THE NORTH TO WEST GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LOTS OF WARM AIR ALOFT PRECIP WILL BE RAIN ALONG
THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP TO MAKE IT INLAND BECAUSE OF
DOWNSLOPING AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...AFTER FRONT HISTS THE
COAST AND FALLS APART FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND SHORT-WAVES
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS INLAND. LOOK FOR STRONG FLOW DOWN
COOK INLET AND SHELIKOF STRAIT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THIS DUE TO LARGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
BOTTOM LINE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL...REMAINING WET AND WARM ALONG THE
COAST AND MOSTLY DRY INLAND. FOR THE ALEUTIANS...THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A NARROW BAND OF STRONG
WINDS ALONG IT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP WINDS WILL COME MID TO LATE
WEEK AS STORMS TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. WITH A SIGNIFICANT
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND MID WEEK SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 120 132 175 350. GALE 121 130 150 155 170 172 176 410.

SEB DEC 06