Storm Warning 196, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 250009
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 979 MB LOW 110 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA SUN MORNING
THEN DISSIPATE SUN AFTERNOON. A 998 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE TO NEAR ADAK AND STRENGTHEN TO 980 MB SAT AFTERNOON AND TO
250 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB SUN
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 30 BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-251500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
WITH SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-251500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 35 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-251500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. SNOW WITH
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-251500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-251500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-251500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU NOV 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE FINALLY SETTLING DOWN AND ARE COMING UP
WITH A CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THERE WONT BE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE
EAST DOMAIN AND EITHER NAM OR GFS WILL WORK. IN THE WEST DOMAIN THE
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A
BETTER SOLUTION IN THE MID TO LATTER PERIODS OF THE RUN.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA MONDAY. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SHOULD NOT AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TOO MUCH BUT WILL BRING WIND AND WEATHER INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

NEAR SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PULL BACK TO THE
EAST AS A WEAK RIDGE ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY. AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW OUT OF THE CHANNELED TERRAIN THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND.

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING SNOW AND SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO KODIAK SATURDAY.

WEST DOMAIN. THIS AREA IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA SATURDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST SATURDAY.

A MODERATE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO NEAR ADAK AND
DEEPEN TO 980 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO 973 MB SUNDAY. MORE
WIND AND RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155, 160, 165, 170, 172, 176, 179, 180, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 06