Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN AK WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SHEMYA THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE..MOST OF MAINLAND AK IS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WITH SURFACE
LOWS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEAKENING
GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A WEATHER FRONT LIES JUST OFF
WESTERN AK AND A SECOND FRONT IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING THE BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE BRINGING BOTH FRONTS SUCCESSIVELY TO ITS
WESTERN FLANK. FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM.

EAST OF THE AK RANGE...CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CROSS THE KENAI TOWARD ANCHORAGE BY SAT
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MON AND TUE.

WEST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGE...DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE FIRST FRONT SLIDES
TOWARD THE COAST A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER COASTAL AREAS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...SMALL CRAFT AND GALES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE TWO FRONTS PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AS THEY MAKE THEIR
WAY ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH EARLY SAT.  BY SAT AFTERNOON A RAPIDLY
MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW RACES NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
BERING...BRINGING RAIN WITH GALES AND STORMS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BERING THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND THEN SMALL CRAFT AND GALES TO THE
WESTERN HALF SUN AND MON. HIGH PRESSURE AND BENIGN CONDITIONS AFFECT
THE AREA TUE...ALONG WITH A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 129 140 180
         GALES 150 155 160 165 170 175 176 180 185
         STORMS 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 06