Small Craft Advisory 1081, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU NOV 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE FINALLY SETTLING DOWN AND ARE COMING UP
WITH A CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THERE WONT BE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE
EAST DOMAIN AND EITHER NAM OR GFS WILL WORK. IN THE WEST DOMAIN THE
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A
BETTER SOLUTION IN THE MID TO LATTER PERIODS OF THE RUN.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA MONDAY. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SHOULD NOT AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TOO MUCH BUT WILL BRING WIND AND WEATHER INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

NEAR SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PULL BACK TO THE
EAST AS A WEAK RIDGE ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY. AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW OUT OF THE CHANNELED TERRAIN THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND.

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING SNOW AND SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO KODIAK SATURDAY.

WEST DOMAIN. THIS AREA IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA SATURDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST SATURDAY.

A MODERATE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO NEAR ADAK AND
DEEPEN TO 980 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO 973 MB SUNDAY. MORE
WIND AND RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155, 160, 165, 170, 172, 176, 179, 180, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 06