Storm Warning 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 032330
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 MB LOW OVER KUSKOKWIM BAY MOVES INLAND NEAR BETHEL TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY 988 MB LOW MOVES TO 90 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ150-041400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-041400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-041400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT PACIFIC SIDE. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-041400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE SUNDAY MORNING RUN
THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. GFS
MOVES THE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM
AND UKMET MODELS. SINCE THE GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY, I
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IT THAN THE NAM MODEL.

UPPER AIR...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TURN
NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT
INTO THE YUKON DELTA REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH LEVEL JET TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSELY LINKED WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND WILL MIRROR ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST BERING SEA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE NEXT TO DAYS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT
AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WARM AND COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. STRONG
EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE KENAI AND CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING.

STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGH ELEVATIONS
         TUESDAY.
MARINE...GALES 120, 150, 155, 170, 172, 175, 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM OCT 06