Small Craft Advisory 903, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE SUNDAY MORNING RUN
THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. GFS
MOVES THE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM
AND UKMET MODELS. SINCE THE GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY, I
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IT THAN THE NAM MODEL.

UPPER AIR...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TURN
NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT
INTO THE YUKON DELTA REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH LEVEL JET TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSELY LINKED WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND WILL MIRROR ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST BERING SEA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE NEXT TO DAYS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT
AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WARM AND COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. STRONG
EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE KENAI AND CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING.

STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGH ELEVATIONS
         TUESDAY.
MARINE...GALES 120, 150, 155, 170, 172, 175, 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM OCT 06