Small Craft Advisory 906, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC
AND UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE EASTERN BERING IS CLEARLY SEEN ON IR
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
IN THE EASTERN BERING MAKING ITS WAY NORTH. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW UNDER
THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTH FROM RUSSIA INTO THE WESTERN BERING.
THE JET STREAM IS POSITIONED OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE BERING LOW AND THE
JET MOVING OVERHEAD...WIND REPORTS FROM CHANNELED TERRAIN OVER THE
MAINLAND HAVE BEEN IN THE 30 TO 55 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE PRODUCED STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

HAVE AGAIN FOLLOWED GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE FOR CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
SOLUTIONS. GFS HAS BEEN STEADY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE POSITION OF
THE BERING LOW WITH ONLY TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST EACH
RUN WHEREAS WRF HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE. WAS SURPRISED THAT NONE OF
LAST NIGHTS MODELS INITIALIZED WITH ANY SIGN OF A WEAKENING LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BERING LOW.

THE STRONG LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH KEEPING
BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM BAY IN A CONSTANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS THAT
WILL CAUSE STORM SURGE ABOVE MAXIMUM AVERAGE TIDE LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS LOW IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. EXPECT TO SEE WINDS GUST IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH
TODAY AS THE UPPER JET PASSES OVERHEAD. THE JET EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
THE PACIFIC HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION LEVELS TODAY AS A FRONT
NEARS THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AREAS AND THE ALASKA RANGE TO SEE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. MOST WILL FALL AS RAIN HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE THE MOISTURE FALLING AS SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEK...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO BE WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND
SPREAD OVER THE MAINLAND. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS TO BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS COULD GIVE THE FIRST GOOD CHANCE TO
SEE SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS SEASON ACROSS THE MAINLAND LATE
THIS WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...THE ALEUTIANS WILL
HAVE SLIGHT RIDGING BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BEFORE A TWO MORE LOWS MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 135
      ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING 155 161
MARINE...STORM 160
      ...GALE 120 125 130 132 138 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR OCT 06