Small Craft Advisory 914, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU OCT 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS MORNING IS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND IT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST ARE
MOVING NORTH AND DIMINISHING. A RIDGE IS PUSHING EAST SLOWLY OVER THE
BERING WITH A LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN SPREADING ITS CIRRUS
SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHAIN.

DID NOT LIKE THE LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WAS PLACED TOO FAR TO THE WEST WITH ITS TRACK...DECIDED TO
STICK WITH PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO BE DIMINISHING FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BRINGS KODIAK ISLAND MORE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT GAP WINDS TO INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE AT THEIR COLDEST. WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN
BE PUSHED NORTH UP FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A NEW SYSTEM.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES
TOWARD BRISTOL BAY TOMORROW...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AND A RIDGE PUSHES IN
SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

ALEUTIANS...RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS UP TOWARD THE AKPEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR
KAMCHATKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO BRING GALES AND RAIN TO THE
WESTERN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
BELOW THE CHAIN. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REGAIN STRENGTH LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND TURN BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 170 171 172 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR OCT 06