Gale Warning 754, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050625 CCA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1020 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

CORRECTED ZONE 138 HEADLINE

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 MB LOW MOVES TO NEAR SEWARD TONIGHT THEN INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. A 989 MB LOW MOVES TO 70 NM EAST OF SAND POINT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-051400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCAL
GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-051400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...S WIND 35 KT
DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1020 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STRAIT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT DIMINISHING TO 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL LOOKS OVERALL THE BEST AND WILL BE USED IN
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.UPPER AIR...COLD LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
EVENING AND OVER THE NORTH/EASTERN INTERIOR THU. ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS 500 MB TEMPS DROP TO -32 WITH PASSAGE OF
LOW CENTER AND FAIR PVA. MAINLAND LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTH AS
CENTER OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN MOVES TO NEAR NORTON SOUND FRI NIGHT.
CENTERS DROP 500 MB TEMPS TO -32 TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE OVER THE NW
BERING SEA ROTATES SE AND SHARPENS TO ALONG 170W THU EVENING. CENTER
FORMS ABOUT THAT TIME AND MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND.

.EAST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER
CENTER AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS LIKELY TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOWER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING
LEVELS 015-020 FT POSSIBLE. WINDS CONDITIONS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY
SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER MAINLAND...BUT BRISK AND GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER COASTAL MARINE AREAS. ORGAINZED RAIN AND BRISK
SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
SOUTHCENTRAL FRI AS DEVELOPING CENTER MOVES TO NEAR SAND POINT.

.WEST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUE OVER THE SW
MAINLAND THROUGH THU. NPAC SAT PIC SHOWS DEVELOPING CENTER UNDER
STRONG UPPER JUST SOUTH OF THE WEST ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. CENTER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH DIGGING DROP FROM THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. EXPECT CENTER SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR SAND POINT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 980S FRI AFTERNOON. WILL START WITH GALES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS SOLUTION IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UK MET AND NOGAPS THROUGH
48-60 HR. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION WILL DIFFICULT TO BLEND WITH OLD
EXTENDED...SO WILL HAVE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO MARINES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 132, 155 160 170 171 172 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 06