Gale Warning 755, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL LOOKS OVERALL THE BEST AND WILL BE USED IN
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.UPPER AIR...COLD LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
EVENING AND OVER THE NORTH/EASTERN INTERIOR THU. ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS 500 MB TEMPS DROP TO -32 WITH PASSAGE OF
LOW CENTER AND FAIR PVA. MAINLAND LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTH AS
CENTER OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN MOVES TO NEAR NORTON SOUND FRI NIGHT.
CENTERS DROP 500 MB TEMPS TO -32 TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE OVER THE NW
BERING SEA ROTATES SE AND SHARPENS TO ALONG 170W THU EVENING. CENTER
FORMS ABOUT THAT TIME AND MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND.

.EAST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER
CENTER AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS LIKELY TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOWER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING
LEVELS 015-020 FT POSSIBLE. WINDS CONDITIONS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY
SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER MAINLAND...BUT BRISK AND GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER COASTAL MARINE AREAS. ORGAINZED RAIN AND BRISK
SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
SOUTHCENTRAL FRI AS DEVELOPING CENTER MOVES TO NEAR SAND POINT.

.WEST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUE OVER THE SW
MAINLAND THROUGH THU. NPAC SAT PIC SHOWS DEVELOPING CENTER UNDER
STRONG UPPER JUST SOUTH OF THE WEST ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. CENTER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH DIGGING DROP FROM THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. EXPECT CENTER SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR SAND POINT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 980S FRI AFTERNOON. WILL START WITH GALES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS SOLUTION IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UK MET AND NOGAPS THROUGH
48-60 HR. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION WILL DIFFICULT TO BLEND WITH OLD
EXTENDED...SO WILL HAVE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO MARINES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 132, 155 160 170 171 172 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 06