Small Craft Advisory 875, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE JET
STREAM IS BRINGING THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPED IN THE MORNING IN VALLEYS AND THE COOK INLET AREA.
THIS WILL STRATUS WILL MOSTLY BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IS LIKELY
TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME MORE CLOUDY AND WET AS TWO LOWS
IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE IS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 45N 170W. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THIS LOW AND THE
SPIN ON IT VERY NICELY. ALSO EVIDENT IS THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR 49N
160W. THIS IS SEEN IN THE ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG THE JET STREAM IN
THIS AREA. THIS LOW WILL END UP MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SHELIKOF STRAIT
TUESDAY MORNING AT AROUND 990 MB WHICH IS AROUND THE STRENGTH IT IS
CURRENTLY AT. THIS IS LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THE NAM HAS
THE LOW MOVING EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BUT THE MORE WESTERN TRACK OF
THE GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE DUE TO THE EFFECT OF THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT
SHOULD DRAG THIS FIRST LOW FURTHER WEST.

THE SECOND LOW IS FORMER SUPER TYPHOON YAGI WHICH IS NOW WEST OF
JAPAN. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL AS TO THE ACTUAL STRENGTH AN
TRACK OF THIS STORM AS THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE WEAKENING AND
TRACKING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF MOST OF THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE GULF OF
ALASKA OFFSHORE. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN IN SOUTHERN ALASKA
DUR TO THIS SYSTEM...AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE JET STREAM
SHOULD BRING THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 191.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 172 175.
         STORM 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 06