Gale Warning 691, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON CLEARLY SHOWS THE JET
STREAM STREAKING ACROSS 40N AND THEN BENDING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 45N
155W AND THEN HEADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO
EVIDENT IN THE IR SATELLITE IS THE ENHANCEMENT OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF
AMCHITKA ISLAND DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW THERE.
THE INFLECTION IN THE JET AT 45N 155W IS WHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS
DEVELOPING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN STEP WITH THE JET STREAM INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY. MOST OF THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST ARE WILL BE
UNAFFECTED DIRECTLY BY THIS LOW.
THE LOW SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA UNTIL TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DAYS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON YAGI ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY AND TO ALSO
MOSTLY TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA TODAY FROM THE LOW THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

MODELS...FOR MOST OF THE STATE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THERE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENCE OF OPINION TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN
THE GULF BUT THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MAN OUT IN THIS CASE WITH
THE GFS UKMET AND ECMWF ALL BEING IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TRACK AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF THE YAGI SYSTEM. THE EMCWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY 10 TO 20
MB DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THE SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AS IT PASSES BY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 06