Gale Warning 692, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 251115
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 370 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES TO 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAND POINT AT 994 MB MON NIGHT. A 986 MB LOW 570 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA INTENSIFYING TO 967 MB
EARLY TUE MORNING. IT THEN MOVES TO 260 NM SOUTH OF ATKA AT 979 MB
EARLY WED MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE MORNING.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-260200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-260200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE JET
STREAM IS BRINGING THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPED IN THE MORNING IN VALLEYS AND THE COOK INLET AREA.
THIS WILL STRATUS WILL MOSTLY BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IS LIKELY
TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME MORE CLOUDY AND WET AS TWO LOWS
IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE IS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 45N 170W. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THIS LOW AND THE
SPIN ON IT VERY NICELY. ALSO EVIDENT IS THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR 49N
160W. THIS IS SEEN IN THE ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG THE JET STREAM IN
THIS AREA. THIS LOW WILL END UP MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SHELIKOF STRAIT
TUESDAY MORNING AT AROUND 990 MB WHICH IS AROUND THE STRENGTH IT IS
CURRENTLY AT. THIS IS LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THE NAM HAS
THE LOW MOVING EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BUT THE MORE WESTERN TRACK OF
THE GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE DUE TO THE EFFECT OF THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT
SHOULD DRAG THIS FIRST LOW FURTHER WEST.

THE SECOND LOW IS FORMER SUPER TYPHOON YAGI WHICH IS NOW WEST OF
JAPAN. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL AS TO THE ACTUAL STRENGTH AN
TRACK OF THIS STORM AS THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE WEAKENING AND
TRACKING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF MOST OF THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE GULF OF
ALASKA OFFSHORE. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN IN SOUTHERN ALASKA
DUR TO THIS SYSTEM...AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE JET STREAM
SHOULD BRING THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 191.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 172 175.
         STORM 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 06