Small Craft Advisory 820, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT SEP 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS GFS HAS HAD A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS BECAUSE THE WEATHER TODAY IS EXACTLY WHAT HAS BEEN
FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.  FORMER TYPHOON IOKE IS NOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...JUST AS
FORECAST.  SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY HEAVY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVE ONSHORE A BARRIER JET HAS FORMED ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IS CAUSING GALES IN THE MARINE ZONES.
EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS IN CHANNELED AREAS...PAR FOR THE COURSE
PARTICULARLY IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  OVER THE MAINLAND SKIES
ARE CLEARING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.  MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN BERING.  A TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE AND THE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF HAS BROUGHT
GUSTY WINDS TO THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUT THEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF BOTH
WEATHER FEATURES.  SOME LOW STRATUS CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER
EASTWARD THIS WILL PERVADE THE BERING.

IN THE EAST...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE AREA LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW IN THE GULF.  THERE MAY
BE A SHORT BREAK FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE LOW MOVING IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT AS THE LOW TURNS NORTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY
THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE.  AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY A
BARRIER JET WILL BRING GALES TO THE NORTH GULF COAST MARINE ZONES BUT
THESE WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  LOOK FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT AND
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS AVAILABLE.

OUT WEST...WINDS STILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THESE
ZONES.  STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WESTERN AKPEN
AND IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT IN PLACE.
CHANNELING MAY PRODUCE HIGH GUSTS AT TIMES.  HOWEVER THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.  LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MADE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE BERING YET...BUT WILL AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FURTHER
EAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY.  BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES AND ARE SHOWING THE SAME
FORECAST SOLUTIONS WITH PLACING THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF.  GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR CONSISTANCY REASONS.

OUTLOOK...ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA IT SHOULD FILL
RAPIDLY AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE MAINLAND.  MOST
AREAS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SUNNY ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 170 171
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF SEP 06