Small Craft Advisory 816, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI SEP 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE BERING IS STILL CAUSING WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST REGION TODAY.  ALOFT A JET MAX IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND IS MAINLY ZONAL IN NATURE.  THIS
HAS PROVIDED SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS...
RESULTING IN WIND WARNINGS LAST NIGHT.  HOWEVER AS THE JET MAX
CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LOSE
ANY ENHANCEMENT AND WILL WEAKEN ACCORDINGLY.  AT THE SURFACE THE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WEST OF THE AKPEN...BUT WARNING LEVEL WINDS
ARE NO LONGER A CONCERN AS THE JET SUPPORT HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OUT WEST...CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF
TOWARD THE EAST.  STRONG WINDS ALONG THE AKPEN AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...GALES IN THE MARINES...WILL STILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

IN THE EAST...SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AS THE LOW LOSES
MORE OF ITS MOISTURE.  WINDS ALSO WILL DIE DOWN OVER THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION AND WEAKENS AND THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS A LITTLE.  HOWEVER STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN IN THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE MORE. SMALL CRAFT IN THE
MARINES...NO GALES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS IS STILL THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY...ALTHOUGH
AGAIN THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PAST
PERFORMANCES.  NAM CONTINUES TO PUT THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND SHOWS IT
CROSSING THE AKPEN NEAR KING SALMON...WHILE THE GFS HAS IT CLOSER TO
COLD BAY.  NAM ALSO MAINTAINS A DEEPER LOW CENTER MUCH LONGER THAT
THE GFS...WHICH WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND
WARNINGS.  GFS MAINTAINS THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY...WHICH
EXPLAINS WHY ITS THE MODEL OF CHOICE YET AGAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOOKS TO BE A RAINY WEEKEND FOR THE EAST...BUT OUT
IN THE ALEUTIANS A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE.  OF COURSE THE EVER PRESENT MARINE STRATUS MAY BE A PROBLEM
BUT AS OF YET IT HAS NOT MOVED IN.  BY NEXT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MAINLAND AND SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185
         COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ZONE 161
MARINE...GALES 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF SEP 06