Small Craft Advisory 819, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
405 AM ADT SAT SEP 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 980 MB LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA ALTHOUGH IT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TODAY. THIS IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE AK PENN AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE GULF TODAY. AS SHOWERS AND
WIND EXIT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG MOVING IN TO THE MAINLAND FROM
BRISTOL BAY TO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.

ALTHOUGH NOT FULLY SUPPORTED AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE WINDS AROUND THE
LOW ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE JET WHICH IS CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN.

MODEL ANALYSIS..MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL. NAM HAS
COME INTO ALIGNMENT WITH OTHER MODELS BUT MOVES A LITTLE FASTER BY 60
HRS. GFS HAS TRENDED BETTER WITH THE SYSTEM SO WILL GO WITH THAT FOR
NOW.

STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ALL CHANNELED TERRAIN FROM UNALASKA TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY. GALES WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE PREVALENT.
RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS EAST TO
THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH
AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AK PENN AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SUN AND MON.
EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS UNDER THE RIDGE. A STRONG LOW OVER RUSSIA WILL
DROP A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING
AND SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND SUN. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 165 170 171 172 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW SEP 06