Small Craft Advisory 809, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU SEP 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST MAJOR STORM OF THE SEASON IS RIPPING ACROSS THE BERING SEA
THIS MORNING. THIS LOW CONTAINS THE EXTRA-TROPICAL REMAINS OF FORMER
SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (PRONOUNCED EE-OH-KEH...EMPHASIS ON THE MIDDLE
SYLLABLE. IOKE IS THE HAWAIIAN WORD FOR JOYCE). WINDS AS HIGH AS 70
KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM SO FAR. THE LOW CENTER WILL
CROSS SAINT PAUL AROUND MIDDAY AND BE JUST ABOUT TO CAPE NEWENHAM
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT WILL BEGIN TO FILL. THE LOW
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEKEND WHERE
IT WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS DISAGREE TO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AND
ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE THE NORTHERLY JET
SOUTHWARD FROM SIBERIA...ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...AND
THEN INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRAW MUCH OF THE
ENERGY FROM THE FORMER TYPHOON/GULF LOW. SOME TROFFINESS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA INTO MID WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY ON THIS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TRANSITION SEASON
STRUGGLES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191.
         COASTAL FLOOD WARNING 155 161.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 171 172 175 176 179 185.
         GALE WARNING 150 155 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 06