Small Craft Advisory 807, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
GFS MODEL WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS USED FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.EAST...LOWER 990S MB LOW APPEARS TO BE STALLING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS CENTER WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES STAKED WITH UPPER
CENTER TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF WILL SETTLE DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. EXPECT NEXT MOISTURE SURGE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH
GULF WITH APPROACH OF BERING SEA STORM THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.WEST...STORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA IS SO FAR ON COURSE.
12Z GFS RUN HAS TRENDED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT. NCEP MODEL AND
UKMET/ECMWF ALL THEN TO MERGE NEAR THE SW COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY DROP CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN SAT/SUN. EXPECT STORM TO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH AND WEST QUADS OF STORM
CENTER AS IT DROPS INTO THE 960S TONIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG WINDS MOVING INTO SW ALASKA WILL PRODUCE STORM SURGES OF
1 TO 3 FT ALONG COASTAL LOCALS FROM HOOPER BAY TO NUSHAGAK BAY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND LOW STARTS
SHIFTING SOUTH THAT SURF SHOULD SETTLE DOWN. MODEL QPF VALUES ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ZONES 155 AND 161. NUMEROUS STRONG
WIND HEADLINES.
MARINE...STORM 170, 171, 172, 175, 176, 179, 185
         GALE 120, 130, 150, 155, 160, 165, 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 06