Small Craft Advisory 71, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON JAN 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNAL FROM THE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS THAT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON TRACK TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO
EASTERN SIBERIA NEXT COUPLE OF DAY WITH A RIDGE NOSING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELATIVELY WELL INITIALIZED BUT NOT
NOT HANDLED IN THE SHORT TERM. DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF OF THE COASTAL
RANGE SHOULD KEEP THE LOW DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THUS WIND SPEEDS HIGHER IN THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL MARINE
ZONES.

COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL ABATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE RIDGE LINE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE INTERIOR STATIONS LOOK DRY
AND COLD WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS ROTATE UP
AND AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
VICINITY OF KAMCHATKA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
LEADING TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGHER AT TIMES IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...GALES 121 130 132 150 170 171 179 350.
         STORMS 172 175 176 410.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 121 129 130 132 139 140 150 155
             160 165 179 410.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CAS JAN 06