Brisk Wind Advisory 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE REASONABLE FORECAST
TRENDS IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HANDLING OF
SERIES OF INTENSE LOWS NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. GFS WILL BE USED
IN FORECAST PACKAGES.

.EAST...LOW CENTER WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH
GULF OVERNIGHT HAS NOW MOVED TO NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND AND IS
WEAKENING. EXPECT CENTER TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA MON
NIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN INLET AND INTO
KACHEMAK BAY IS PRODUCING BRISK WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER
KACHEMAK BAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW OVER KACHEMAK BAY
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH. SNOW OVER REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER CENTER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO MON
MORNING. N/S DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WILL PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MON AND TUES.

.WEST...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...AK PEN...AND SW
ALASKA TUE MORNING. SERIES OF INTENSE LOWS MOVE NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SPREAD ALTERNATE PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE REGION. EASTERN MOST CENTER MOVES OVER SHEMYA TUE MORNING.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH SPREADS STRONG SE WINDS TO EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 121. HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 191.
         NUMEROUS ADVISORIES.
MARINE...NUMEROUS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAYS...STORMS...AND GALES. SEE
LATEST PACKAGES FOR DETAILS.

RMC JAN 06