Small Craft Advisory 515, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN ALASKA. A FRONT FROM A DISSIPATED LOW
HAS BEEN BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE GULF AND BRISTOL BAY COASTAL AND
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW FAR
SOUTH OF KODIAK IS SHOWING UP VERY WELL ON SATELLITE AS IT MOVES
NORTH WITH ITS CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY COVERING THE WESTERN GULF AND
COASTAL AREAS.

MODELS INITIALIZED RELATIVELY WELL. BOTH ARE A LITTLE WEAK ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. THEIR SOLUTIONS ON THE LOW
ARE BETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO HOWEVER STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW
NEARS LAND ABOUT 48 HOURS OUT. THEREFORE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM WRF
WAS USED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER MOVES NORTH OVER THE YUKON. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH
OF KODIAK WILL PUSH ITS FRONT INTO THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT AND FRI
BRINGING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INLAND BUT EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND
COASTAL AREAS AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP DECREASE THE FIRE DANGER WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL.

THE LOW WILL ALSO PUSH ITS FRONT OVER BRISTOL BAY...THE AKPEN AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN IT REACHES THE
PRIBILOFS. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY DRY
WITH A RIDGE REMAINING OVER THEM THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK LOW
FOLLOWED BY PRECIP FROM THE AKPEN LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 130 132 138
      ...GALE 120 140 150 155 160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR JUN 06