Small Craft Advisory 328, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON APR 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS INITIALIZED BETTER THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA AND WITH THE MOISTURE PARAMETERS. ALSO BELIEVE GFS WILL HANDLE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC BETTER AND ITS
TRANSITION FROM BRISTOL BAY INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVELS...LARGE LOW IN NORTHWEST BERING SEA WITH A WAVE MOVING
TO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS WAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TOMORROW. LARGE
LOW TO START SWINGING SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE
WAVE CONTINUES INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A VORT MAX MOVES INTO
THE LARGE BERING SEA LOW MOVES EAST AS A VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE
LOW AND ACTS TO PULL IT EAST WEDNESDAY AND DROPS INTO THE GULF
THURSDAY. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH A FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA. LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG IN THE GULF AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LOW IN NORTHWEST BERING UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODERATE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE BERING
UNDERNEATH THIS LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
MODELS HAVE NOT PICKED UP THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT GFS
HAS THE BEST HANDLE. FRONT WEAKENS AS IT RUNS TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO IT RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE AREA. LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT DAY
WHILE A STRONG LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
BERING SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE AKPEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO  BRISTOL BAY DURING THIS TIME
AND TO NEAR BETHEL AS WELL. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY. THE LOW ALSO HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...SO
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS WITH SOME COLDER AIR INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME THE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG TO
VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE AKPEN WEST TO NEAR UNALASKA. WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG
THESE AREAS WITH POSSIBLE WIND WARNINGS AS WELL. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE BERING
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH THE LOW CARVING OUT IN THE GULF. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA DURING THIS TIME. RIDGE AND WARMING TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BERING.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT. WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH AND REDEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL. EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD. A FRONT
FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW IN BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL PUSH THROUGH KODIAK. THIS FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GULF AS COLD AIR WRAPS INTO IT. GOOD
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GALE FORCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
THINK ABOUT WIND WARNING OVER KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY. MAY NEED STORM
FORCE WINDS IN SHELIKOF AS WELL DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AS WELL.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST PRECIPITATION WILL WANE
FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN APR 06