Gale Warning 358, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 111130
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST + KODIAK ISLAND WATERS + 
COOK INLET...
A FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 90 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CORDOVA THURSDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-120200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-120200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-120200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS
AND PASSES. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-120200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-120200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE WIND 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-120200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE WIND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW WIND 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-120200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-120200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGEST WIND SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. SNOW AND RAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORELANDS. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT BY THE AFTERNOON IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ141-120200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...WIND BECOMING NW 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON APR 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS INITIALIZED BETTER THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA AND WITH THE MOISTURE PARAMETERS. ALSO BELIEVE GFS WILL HANDLE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC BETTER AND ITS
TRANSITION FROM BRISTOL BAY INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVELS...LARGE LOW IN NORTHWEST BERING SEA WITH A WAVE MOVING
TO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS WAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TOMORROW. LARGE
LOW TO START SWINGING SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE
WAVE CONTINUES INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A VORT MAX MOVES INTO
THE LARGE BERING SEA LOW MOVES EAST AS A VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE
LOW AND ACTS TO PULL IT EAST WEDNESDAY AND DROPS INTO THE GULF
THURSDAY. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH A FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA. LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG IN THE GULF AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LOW IN NORTHWEST BERING UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODERATE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE BERING
UNDERNEATH THIS LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
MODELS HAVE NOT PICKED UP THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT GFS
HAS THE BEST HANDLE. FRONT WEAKENS AS IT RUNS TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO IT RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE AREA. LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT DAY
WHILE A STRONG LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
BERING SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE AKPEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO  BRISTOL BAY DURING THIS TIME
AND TO NEAR BETHEL AS WELL. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY. THE LOW ALSO HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...SO
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS WITH SOME COLDER AIR INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME THE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG TO
VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE AKPEN WEST TO NEAR UNALASKA. WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG
THESE AREAS WITH POSSIBLE WIND WARNINGS AS WELL. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE BERING
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH THE LOW CARVING OUT IN THE GULF. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA DURING THIS TIME. RIDGE AND WARMING TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BERING.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT. WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH AND REDEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL. EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD. A FRONT
FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW IN BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL PUSH THROUGH KODIAK. THIS FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GULF AS COLD AIR WRAPS INTO IT. GOOD
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GALE FORCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
THINK ABOUT WIND WARNING OVER KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY. MAY NEED STORM
FORCE WINDS IN SHELIKOF AS WELL DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AS WELL.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST PRECIPITATION WILL WANE
FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN APR 06