Gale Warning 361, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT TUE APR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL INITIALIZED BEST AND HAD BETTER 6 HR
FORECAST. PARALLELNAM AND GFS MODEL IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES WILL BE BASED ON
GFS SERIES WITH SOME MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS.

.WEST...989 MB LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE
NORTH BRISTOL BAY COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN INLAND NEAR CAPE
CONSTANTINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAKENS. SNOW IN ADVANCE OF
OCCLUDED FRONT IS SPREADING SNOW INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND
RAIN WITH WARM AIR OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. STRONG UPPER JET
ELONGATES FRONT TO OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH TRIPLE POINT CENTER
FORMING JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WED MORNING. COLD ADVECTION ON
BACKSIDE OF CENTER MOVING INTO SW ALASKA AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL
PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN
WED AND WED NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS LIKELY AK PEN
LATE WED. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU AND EASTERN
BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON.

.EAST...TRIPLE POINT FORMING EAST OF KODIAK WED MORNING MOVES TO NEAR
SEWARD WED NIGHT THEN DROPS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT AND WED MORNING WITH LOW
MOVING INTO BRISTOL AND FRONT APPROACHING NORTH GULF COAST. GRADIENTS
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WED AS CENTER FORMS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND.
OVERRUNNING SNOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONT OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AND NORTH
GULF WED. WARM AIR SPREADS TO KODIAK TONIGHT AND TO THE NORTH GULF
AND KENAI PEN WED AFTERNOON...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO SHIFT TO RAIN
IN THESE AREAS. COLDER AND AIR SPREADS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
GULF AS LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GULF FRI AND SAT. EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCHES ZONES 181 AND 185.
MARINE...STORMS 150 155 AND 165. GALES 120 132 138 150 160 170 171
                                       172 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC APR 06