Small Craft Advisory 269, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST TUE MAR 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE BEING THAT BOTH FEATURES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.

A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY AND PULL THE SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST SOUTHWARD WITH IT.

A FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT
SLAMS INTO THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND
ALASKA AREAS. THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS IN THE ALEUTIANS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS MADE A LARGE JUMP FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. IT DEEPEN WHAT HAD BEEN A
WEAK LOW BY 15 TO 20 MB AND MOVES IT FURTHER WEST BY A BIT. THE NAM
UKMET AND ECMWF ALL HAVE THIS LOW ACCOUNTED FOR BUT HAVE DIFFERENT
POSITIONS AND DEPTHS. THIS PUT A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE ALEUTIANS TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THIS AREA TO SEE
HOW THIS LOW DEVELOPS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 150 155 160 165 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 06