Gale Warning 292, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST WED MAR 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...TODAYS WEATHER MAP IS RATHER UNEVENTFUL OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA. A WEAKENING FRONT IN THE BERING SEA WILL GIVE WAY TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO
AROUND 997 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AMCHITKA AND THEN WEAKEN AGAIN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSISTS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME BUT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND KEEP ANY SYSTEMS FROM ENCROACHING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYTIME AS THE SUN IS NOW PAST THE SPRING EQUINOX AND HAS
SOME ACTUAL HEAT COMING OFF OF IT THESE DAYS

THE LOW THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA YESTERDAY HAS HEADED FAR TO
THE SOUTH NEAR 45N. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW STILL EXTENDS
NORTHWARD IN TO THE GULF WHERE A WEAK LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF TODAY. THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ON THESE LOWS IS THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
IT. PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH TO THE INLAND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT THAT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ETA GFS WRF UKMET AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN
THE SAME BALLPARK WITH FEATURES. SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH AND
PLACEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA BUT THE
SOLUTIONS LOOK RATHER SOLID FOR THE MOST PART.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 06