Small Craft Advisory 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND ETA MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36
HOURS BUT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME. THE ETA
MODEL IS MOVING THE LOW ENTERING THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE GFS. I PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION BUT JUNEAU LIKES THE
GFS FROM THU NIGHT ONWARD. SINCE THE LOW ENTER THE GULF ON THEIR SIDE
OF THE LINE, WE WILL DEFER TO JUNEAU BUT WILL BLEND THE MODEL ON OUR
SIDE. OUT WEST, THE MODEL HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY. HERE I WILL GO WITH THE GFS.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE
WEST COAST OF CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE.
EAST DOMAIN...A WEAK WEATHER FRONT SWINGING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT BRUSHES PAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE LOWER KENAI PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GULF WILL PROBABLY PENETRATED FURTHER INLAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND, THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE OF COOK INLET AND SOUTHWEST
SECTION OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER KENAI PENINSULA
WILL CREATE A RAIN SHADOW THAT WILL KEEP ANCHORAGE AND THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA DRY.

WEST DOMAIN...STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT, SOUTH OF THE CHAIN, MOVES EAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 06