Brisk Wind Advisory 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051258 CCA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

ADDED SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB LOW 450 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO 180 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 987 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ATKA W WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA FRIDAY MORNING WILL
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 974 MB AS IT MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR SATURDAY MORNING. 
$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051552 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

UPDATED ZONES 176 AND 185

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB LOW 450 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO 180 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 987 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ATKA W WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA FRIDAY MORNING WILL
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 974 MB AS IT MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR SATURDAY MORNING. 
$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
700 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
700 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND ETA MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36
HOURS BUT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME. THE ETA
MODEL IS MOVING THE LOW ENTERING THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE GFS. I PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION BUT JUNEAU LIKES THE
GFS FROM THU NIGHT ONWARD. SINCE THE LOW ENTER THE GULF ON THEIR SIDE
OF THE LINE, WE WILL DEFER TO JUNEAU BUT WILL BLEND THE MODEL ON OUR
SIDE. OUT WEST, THE MODEL HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY. HERE I WILL GO WITH THE GFS.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE
WEST COAST OF CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE.
EAST DOMAIN...A WEAK WEATHER FRONT SWINGING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT BRUSHES PAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE LOWER KENAI PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GULF WILL PROBABLY PENETRATED FURTHER INLAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND, THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE OF COOK INLET AND SOUTHWEST
SECTION OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER KENAI PENINSULA
WILL CREATE A RAIN SHADOW THAT WILL KEEP ANCHORAGE AND THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA DRY.

WEST DOMAIN...STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT, SOUTH OF THE CHAIN, MOVES EAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 06