Gale Warning 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 052107 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1210 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

UPDATED ZONE 121

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET... A 981 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL WEAKEN TO
991 MB 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW NEAR 500
NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SITKA AND WEAKEN TO 991 MB SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
1210 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR OUTLET OF NORTHERN BAYS.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR OUTLET OF NORTHERN BAYS.  
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
THIS MORNING.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT BARREN ISLANDS AND WEST THIS
MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT BY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
AND SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 060007
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW 275 SE OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 988 MB FRI
AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING WITHIN 110 NM SE OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THEN MOVE
NEAR KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN FURTHER TO 992 MB.
$$

PKZ120-061500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-061500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN 
THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-061500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-061500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-061500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-061500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-061500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-061500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-061500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 5 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND ETA MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36
HOURS BUT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME. THE ETA
MODEL IS MOVING THE LOW ENTERING THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE GFS. I PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION BUT JUNEAU LIKES THE
GFS FROM THU NIGHT ONWARD. SINCE THE LOW ENTER THE GULF ON THEIR SIDE
OF THE LINE, WE WILL DEFER TO JUNEAU BUT WILL BLEND THE MODEL ON OUR
SIDE. OUT WEST, THE MODEL HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY. HERE I WILL GO WITH THE GFS.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE
WEST COAST OF CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE.
EAST DOMAIN...A WEAK WEATHER FRONT SWINGING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT BRUSHES PAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE LOWER KENAI PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GULF WILL PROBABLY PENETRATED FURTHER INLAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND, THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE OF COOK INLET AND SOUTHWEST
SECTION OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER KENAI PENINSULA
WILL CREATE A RAIN SHADOW THAT WILL KEEP ANCHORAGE AND THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA DRY.

WEST DOMAIN...STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT, SOUTH OF THE CHAIN, MOVES EAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 06