Small Craft Advisory 1165, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
PREFERRED MODEL IN THE WEST. IN THE EAST THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS WITH THE TIMING AND CENTER SIMILAR.  THE EUROPEAN MODELS SEEM TO
MOVE IT ALONG A LITTLE TO QUICK.

THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL DEEPEN AS
IN MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  THIS SHIFTING PATTERN WILL BRING A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND RESULTING IN SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT SURFACE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BERING SUNDAY. A FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS
MORNING ALONG KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND IS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE INTERIOR TODAY.

SNOW CONTINUES FALLING ALONG THE KOSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY THIS
MORNING  BUT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
WEAKENS THE THIS MORNING.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN AS IT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE EAST A SURFACE LOW IS JUST EAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS
THE WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE GULF COAST. A CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. KODIAK HAS ALREADY HAS A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW BUT THAT SHOULD CUT OFF THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA TODAY WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS  KEEPING SNOW TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM, ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG EAST ANCHORAGE AND THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120.
         GALE 125 130 132 138 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 05